The magnitude of the urea price increase this time is between 40-80 yuan (ton price, the same below). Some industries do not know why urea has risen. In the early stage, a few enterprises close to the port received export orders for small packaging urea, followed by an increase in international urea prices and futures prices. This news has made the market atmosphere more active, and the enthusiasm of agricultural procurement in some regions has increased. Gradually, the prices of some urea enterprises have risen. However, some industries still hold a skeptical attitude towards its price increase. Recently, the upward trend has slowed down, and there may not be much motivation for it to continue to rise.

This week, the price of ammonium phosphate remained stable in multiple aspects. Currently, the guaranteed factory price for 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei is around 3000 yuan, and the buyout factory price is around 2950 yuan. The factory price for 64% diammonium in Hubei enterprises is around 3560-3670 yuan, while the first station prices for 64% diammonium and 57% diammonium in Yunnan and North China are around 3630 yuan and 3380 yuan, respectively, mainly for combined sales. The recent price adjustment of ammonium phosphate has little significance, and it is not clear that it will be driven by the urea market. So, what is the situation of ammonium phosphate market?

Adjusting the price of ammonium before the Spring Festival is not very meaningful. In fact, it proves that the demand for ammonium has basically stagnated, and some companies can accept guaranteed orders, but the guaranteed orders only end at the end of February. Downstream companies believe that there is no need for it, so new demand will slow down. It is expected that it will wait until after the Spring Festival. Compound fertilizer companies are not in no hurry to purchase, and they do not have enough confidence in ammonium, thinking that it is difficult to increase in the short term and there will be no shortage temporarily. Therefore, they will consider purchasing after the Spring Festival. The significance of adjusting the price of diammonium phosphate is no longer significant. After two price adjustments by large and some small factories, the stability has been maintained recently, and the significance of price reduction is not significant. As a result, more orders have not been received. Hard demand may not be apparent before the holiday, and large traders are only making purchases step by step. Small and medium-sized traders, distributors, etc. are still watching and have not taken any action.

There are not many pending orders left for ammonium enterprises, and inventory pressure has increased. However, some ammonium enterprises are preparing to suspend production and maintenance for a period of time before and after the Spring Festival. In the short term, inventory pressure is not too great, and some enterprises claim that inventory can be kept for post holiday shipments. The pressure on diammonium enterprises is not significant. Although there is overcapacity, the actual output is not large. They also need to produce new energy based on raw materials, which to some extent affects the production of diammonium. Some diammonium enterprises will carry out equipment rotation and maintenance before and after the Spring Festival.

The cost support of ammonium phosphate raw materials is still strong and will not collapse in the short term. After paying attention to the phosphate ore market for so many years, especially in recent days, the frequency of price adjustments is not high, and it is difficult to see a significant price reduction. However, some industries believe that raw materials such as phosphate ore are purchased one quarter in advance, and although mining is restricted, it cannot affect supply. Poor demand may lead to price reduction risks, but unless policy interventions fundamentally reduce ore prices, ore prices will still remain stable. Similarly, the collapse of sulfur is difficult to achieve, and there is no reason for it to drop significantly, nor can anyone unilaterally decide. Even if the price is reduced, it is temporarily difficult to reach the price before the price increase.

In summary, the ammonium phosphate market before the Spring Festival has been like this, with no significant changes. Recently, it has been heard that ammonium phosphate companies have been summoned by the government again to lower their prices, which is still to be verified. In fact, further price reductions would be a bit unreasonable. It is expected that the prices of monoammonium and diammonium should remain stable in the short term.