After the Spring Festival holiday, the fertilizer market did not start quickly. Although the raw material market did not stop fluctuating, the compound fertilizer market remained calm and unaffected by the rise and fall of raw material prices. Up to now, the ex factory quotation of mainstream compound fertilizer enterprises around the country has basically maintained the level before the festival. As for whether it will rise or fall next, there is still uncertainty. The factory's shipment situation is general, and the overall operating rate has not recovered quickly. It is expected that the official purchase and sales activities will be launched in a large area after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival. Recently, both upstream and downstream parties are in a cautious wait-and-see stage.

The compound fertilizer market remains stable, but the raw material market fluctuates, especially in the urea market. Positive factors are difficult to find, and urea prices continue to be under pressure. The "trick" of lowering prices to attract orders in the past seems to be ineffective now. Even if factory prices fall, downstream new order follow-up sentiment remains cautious, and the short-term urea market may be difficult to get out of the predicament. This round of urea price reduction has made the performance of the compound fertilizer market somewhat calm. If the urea market is not good, will the compound fertilizer market necessarily deteriorate accordingly? Current compound fertilizer companies may not think so.

Firstly, the prices of raw materials are fluctuating. In addition to the decline in urea prices, the recent ammonium chloride market has remained stable, with sufficient spot supply and weak demand performance. Some factories are facing certain inventory pressures; The ammonium market is lukewarm, and downstream demand support is insufficient. Some companies have suspended quotations and negotiated transactions. Compared to nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, the current atmosphere in the potassium fertilizer market is high, and most potassium chloride traders are still priceless. Rumors of price increases are constantly heating up, and low-priced sources are difficult to find. In the short term, the price of potassium fertilizer may rise significantly. This shows that the prices of compound fertilizer raw materials are fluctuating, and the actual costs of some formulas are still firm. Therefore, compound fertilizer enterprises are naturally unwilling to easily adjust prices.

Secondly, wait for downstream demand to emerge. Since the launch of the winter storage market, downstream demand for compound fertilizers has not been particularly strong. In the first half of winter storage, the terminal stocking volume may not be as high as the same period. Therefore, the demand space price after the Spring Festival may be higher than expected. Once downstream replenishment demand is concentrated and released, it will play a certain supporting role in the situation of compound fertilizers; In addition, in the first half of the year, not only is there a high demand for compound fertilizers in spring, but also in some areas, the purchase and sale of summer fertilizers will gradually start before the end of the spring market. The demand for spring and summer seasons seamlessly connects. Therefore, even if prices are adjusted, compound fertilizer companies will make further adjustments based on downstream demand.

Finally, most factories are still returning goods. Due to the unfavorable spring market for compound fertilizers, distributors are hesitant to pick up the goods easily, and grassroots units are also unwilling to purchase during the fertilizer season. Most compound fertilizer factories are still executing preliminary orders and are not in a hurry to accept new ones; In addition, in order to establish downstream stocking confidence, mainstream compound fertilizer enterprises' winter storage receipts are accompanied by relevant minimum guarantee policies, usually with a deadline of around the end of February or March. Before the end of the minimum guarantee policy, as long as the raw material market does not experience significant fluctuations, the probability of compound fertilizer enterprises adjusting prices may not be very high, let alone adjusting prices may not necessarily stimulate downstream demand release.

Overall, the frequent fluctuations in urea prices have become commonplace in the compound fertilizer market, and what is urgently needed in the current compound fertilizer market is spring demand as support.