Recently, the price of urea has remained stable with a slight decrease, and some factories have also raised prices, with weak fluctuations in both rises and falls. The main reason for the weak urea prices in our country is the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply side remains high, although some factories in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Hebei have entered the maintenance period and urea production has decreased, the current daily physical production is about 197000 tons, still at a historical high. On the demand side, due to seasonal influences, it has entered a relatively low season. Agricultural customers are cautious and slow in their procurement of urea, while industrial customers mainly rely on on-demand procurement. After the relaxation of export restrictions, urea exports have gathered at ports, and some enterprises have significantly reduced inventory pressure and destocking. However, due to the limited export quantity and impact, social inventory is still at a high level, and there is a possibility of increasing export quotas in the future. However, there is still no news about the specific quantity and time, and some markets have been speculating on this news recently. We still need to continue to pay attention to official news.

In the past two weeks, due to geopolitical factors, global urea supply has been tight and prices have skyrocketed, stimulating domestic traders to accelerate port exports. Recently, with the suspension of conflicts, prices have gradually returned to rationality. However, due to the impact of ensuring supply and stable prices and incomplete export liberalization, domestic prices are relatively low, and domestic and foreign prices are fragmented. The existing quota is difficult to improve the situation of excess urea supply in China. After the demand weakens and urea prices continue to decline, downstream customers' wait-and-see sentiment is once again intensified, and traders are accelerating shipments. In the short term, the market is once again weak and volatile. Due to the maintenance of a small number of urea enterprises, industrial customers such as compound fertilizer enterprises receiving small quantities of goods according to demand, continuous export port consolidation, and market expectations of increasing quotas in the later stage, the downward space for urea is relatively limited. It is highly likely that urea prices will stabilize again after a short-term weak oscillation.

Ammonium sulfate, which is a nitrogen fertilizer similar to urea, has also been affected by international factors. As a major export product, ammonium sulfate is highly susceptible to international sentiment. After the suspension of the Iran Israel conflict, the emotions of domestic traders have been significantly affected, and some trades have begun to try to lower prices to obtain goods, with less enthusiasm for bidding than in the early stages. However, looking at the overall market situation of ammonium sulfate, it is still at a high level. The ex factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in mainstream regions is basically as high as 1100 yuan/ton, while the ex factory price of caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate is temporarily stable at around 1200 yuan/ton. This is mainly due to the increasing international demand for ammonium sulfate, mainly in Brazil and Southeast Asia, and the continuous increase in imports of ammonium sulfate from China.

After the sharp rise in international prices, the profits of ammonium sulfate traders have also increased. The duration of international high prices is relatively short, and some traders receive more goods. It is not ruled out that some traders may have inverted prices, but based solely on price data calculations, the profitability of traders may have increased compared to the previous period.

In summary, the price of ammonium sulfate has slightly decreased, mainly due to the fact that after the previous surge, the price needs some time to return to rationality, and the current price is adjusted reasonably. Recently, the export of ammonium sulfate has been dominated by extruded particles. The extruded particle factories or intermediate traders take the goods and send them to the extruded particle factories. After processing into particles, they are directly shipped to the port for export. However, it is understood that in recent days, some downstream customers have taken more goods and their inventory has become saturated, so they store the finished products in the warehouse. Due to strong international demand support, there is still a high possibility that the ammonium sulfate market will continue to operate at a high level in the near future.