On November 18, 2025, from the weekend till now, the domestic spot price of urea has been steadily declining, and the ex factory quotation of urea in some regions has been lowered, with an adjustment range of 10-30 yuan/ton. Due to the unverified rumors of a new export quota for urea, market sentiment has cooled down, and the momentum of urea prices has significantly weakened after continuous increases. Downstream demand for higher prices is weak, market trading has turned poor, and some manufacturers have poor orders and lower quotes.

However, there are still expectations for flexible adjustments in urea export policies, and urea prices have repeatedly fluctuated and bottomed out, indicating that they have already emerged from the bottom range. Next, factors such as the start of winter storage and the recovery of operating rates in compound fertilizer enterprises will limit the room for urea prices to fall. If there are positive changes in factors such as winter storage, supply and demand, exports, and policies in the later stage, the urea market is expected to experience a "off-season price increase".