Before the Spring Festival holiday, the spot price of urea in China continued to rise, with many regions raising their factory prices on a large scale. In some areas, the factory price of small and medium-sized urea particles rose to 1830 yuan/ton, reaching a new high since October last year.

Recently, domestic urea prices have continued to rise. Will they continue to soar in the future? Can we still get the goods now

Reasons for the increase in urea prices

Since the domestic urea price hit bottom last year, the factory price of urea in mainstream regions has risen from 1450 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 400 yuan/ton, mainly due to urea exports in the second half of last year.

After entering 2026, the price of urea will continue to fluctuate and rise, which is not enough to support the sustained high rise of urea prices, whether from the supply and demand side or from the raw material side. With a daily output of as much as 210000 tons, the growth in industrial and agricultural demand is not significant, and export quotas have not been issued. What is the basis for the price increase of urea?

The biggest driving force behind this round of rise should be urea futures. Since January 2026, the urea futures market has continued to rise, from 1750 to a high of 1846, with an increase of nearly 100 points. It is precisely under the strong rise of futures that the urea spot price has risen.

Will urea be exported in the near future

The rise in the urea futures market cannot be ruled out due to speculation behind it, as there is a significant price difference between domestic and foreign urea and export profits are considerable. After the relaxation of urea exports in the second half of last year, the export volume reached nearly 5 million tons, which saved the long-term low hovering urea prices and rescued urea enterprises that were in losses.

Industry insiders believe that urea exports will continue in 2026, and the export volume will be even higher than last year. It is precisely based on this judgment that there are occasional "short essays" about urea exports in the market, and the urea futures market is driven up by speculation topics. Many of them are urea traders who buy in large quantities at low prices in the early stage and then choose opportunities to raise prices to sell, making a lot of money.

Based on the current price of urea and the upcoming spring plowing, the time window for urea exports will not be opened during the critical period of ensuring supply and stable prices, and is likely to be after May.

Will urea prices continue to rise sharply

Without considering export factors, domestic urea prices will not only not rise sharply, but may also experience a significant drop? Why?

Domestic urea production is high and supply is sufficient. Last year, the export volume of urea was nearly 5 million tons, which sounds like a lot but is actually not much. With an annual output of over 70 million tons, this export volume only accounts for a small fraction. Coupled with the consumption of industrial and agricultural demand, there should still be a large surplus of urea. Where does this urea go? Most of them will be stored in the warehouse.

The current daily output is as high as 210000 tons, and it may continue to increase after the Spring Festival. The supply is relatively loose. The urea stored in winter last year will be gradually put into the market during the spring plowing period. If the export of urea is not relaxed temporarily, it can be said that supply exceeds demand is inevitable. The current urea price may not seem too high compared to the current price of wheat, corn, and rice, but it is not low compared to the current price. In addition, spring plowing ensures supply and stable prices. It is not impossible for the urea price to drop by 50-100 yuan/ton from the Spring Festival to the end of spring plowing.

Market forecast for the future

This year's Spring Festival holiday is long, and industrial enterprises such as sheet metal will have to take a break. Agricultural fertilizer application and preparation will also end, and the demand for urea will decrease.

For urea factories, it is better to receive orders before the holiday, and they will continue to focus on raising prices after the holiday. However, in the absence of substantial positive news, urea may face a volatile downward trend after the Spring Festival, but the decline will not be too significant. It is predicted to be around 50 yuan/ton. Those who are preparing to buy should pay attention to the risk of a decline and it is best to buy as soon as possible! We should focus on policies, supply and demand, futures, exports, and changes in domestic and international chemical raw materials.