On September 7, 2026, over the weekend, the domestic urea market suddenly exploded! The domestic urea market continues to rise significantly, with some regions raising their ex factory prices by 50-150 yuan/ton. At present, the factory quotation for small and medium-sized urea particles in mainstream regions is between 1750-1820 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, some enterprises have undergone equipment maintenance, but the daily urea production has dropped to below 200000 tons, the operating rate has dropped to around 82%, and the market is operating strongly, resulting in an increase in enterprise inventory to 1.68 million tons. In terms of demand, agricultural demand is relatively weak, industrial demand is average, and compound fertilizer enterprises urgently need to purchase. There is still no significant growth in industrial demand for other materials such as boards and melamine. Currently, the overall supply of urea in China is still shrinking and demand is weak. We need to pay attention to policy changes and export situations in the future. The export situation of urea has improved, the demand for fertilizer preparation in autumn is approaching, and the cost of coal has risen significantly, which to some extent supports the good performance of the urea market. However, the overall pattern of oversupply in China is difficult to fundamentally change, with inventory still at a high level and limited room for further upward movement in the urea market. Nevertheless, urea prices are expected to experience a strong adjustment in the short term.

Market forecast for the future: Overall, agricultural demand is weak, industrial demand is average, and the procurement of compound fertilizer raw materials is mainly based on basic needs. However, the significant increase in coal raw material prices, as well as the decline in daily production and the increase in exports, have strengthened the support for the urea market. The current market sentiment needs to be restored, and we look forward to further policy guidance and continued boost in exports. In the short term, the domestic urea price market will continue to operate strongly.