The International Energy Agency last week said that if the next few months to reach a new global agreement to limit carbon emissions, then the alternative sources and conservation measures are applied in case the next few years will be significantly curb the growth in oil consumption. This means that has been going on for many years to promote growth and high oil prices run oil consumption will be the first face a major turning point.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency last week in its annual World Energy Outlook (World Energy Outlook), said that if the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is an important agreement, including the United States to sign and implement the global crude oil (79.700.120.15%) demand by 2030, compared with current levels may only increase by about 6 million barrels / day to about 91 million barrels / day.
The agency estimated that by 2020, international oil prices of about 100 U.S. dollars / barrel in 2030 in 115 U.S. dollars / barrel level. This is expected to appear in the outside world far more conservative than in the past.
"Leads to this scene occurs because the climate conference agreement will help to promote industry and consumers to more efficient use of energy, and stimulate the development of electric vehicles, automotive industry and other non-oil-driven technology." International Energy Agency in its annual outlook说.
The agency also said in the December climate conference held in Copenhagen to reach an agreement on climate change, for encouraging investment in low carbon energy sources and technologies is essential, otherwise the world will face a substantial increase in emissions of greenhouse gases the situation. Based on the current policy, long-term greenhouse gas emissions, the concentration in the atmosphere will be more than 1000 parts per million (ppm), this trend will lead to a sharp rise in global temperatures.
In the agency view, the carbon credits (carbon credit) a price to be trading in Europe, the current levels to more than double in order to make climate change a high-tech solutions are economically attractive.
However, the IEA also warned that rising crude oil prices, such as possible future trouble. If the recent oil price rally further sustained economic recovery at risk. Moreover, if oil prices continued to rally to 2010, oil demand in itself will slow down the speed of rebound.
In recent years, the IEA forecast global demand for oil industry analysts are often criticized for being too optimistic. However, the agency now expects global oil consumption in the next five years will only be from the current 85 million b / d to 88 million barrels / day. The expected value is far lower than a year ago, the agency estimated in 2015 by 94 million barrels / day of total demand. (Chen Jue)