In 2009 China's total supply of urea is expected to 67 million tons
Time：2009-11-30 Read：1828second
This year the domestic urea production increased rapidly, but demand fell, the market oversupply situation is very obvious. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 1-August, the domestic total production of 42.93 million tons of urea (physical volume), compared with 39.17 million tons during the same period last year, an increase of 3.76 million tons, an increase of 9.6%. Even the fourth-quarter production will no longer increase in urea, urea production in the year 2009 will break through 60 million tons, plus the end of 2008 carried over to the year 2009 the social urea inventory, total supply of urea this year about 67 million tons.
1-9 months from the point of view, the domestic demand for agricultural urea generally remained stable, the Northeast region, and even a slight increase in industrial demand dropped significantly, especially the southeastern coastal areas of industrial urea consumption decreased by about 40% of the urea fertilizer industry raw materials The demand is also reduced; urea sharp decline in export volume, 1-August exports of urea, 1.24 million tons, down by about 70%.
Into October, the domestic agricultural market, the actual demand of urea rarely, industrial demand is unlikely to increase significantly, the domestic urea market is entering a phase of off-season reserves. By the end of September started off-season reserves of the national fertilizer business plan will effectively promote Dan Chu getting goods with the increasing number of manufacturers to resolve the inventory pressures, in order to provide a solid fertilizer next spring protection, but because it is during the off-season reserves, taking into account the financial costs, warehousing costs, and uncertainty in the market next spring, subjective and objective factors that require domestic urea market prices remain low in the overall operation.
With the current number of new devices gradually put into production in 2010 is expected to break through China's urea production capacity of 66 million tons in the next 2-3 years, the possibility of breaking 70 million tons are also high. As a result, urea oversupply situation will be more serious and will result in some production facilities idle or permanently shut down. Present, China's urea production more than 180 enterprises, of which about 70% of the production capacity of coal head, nearly 30% of the production capacity of gas header. The upward trend in gas prices will seriously undermine the competitive advantage of urea with gas for the urea industry, the integration of new variables.
In full swing in recent years has been carried out in the industry consolidation in the next 23 years, is expected to speed up the process, with upper and lower overall resource advantages, production technology and management advantages as well as regional marketing advantage of enterprises will be the ultimate winner.
Through the above analysis we can see that China has been a marked oversupply of urea production capacity in the next two or three years will further increase production capacity, resulting in oversupply situation worsened in recent years, this year is the industry's most difficult year of urea ; the next few years will further accelerate the industry consolidation, domestic urea manufacturers will continue to face severe market test; even eliminate a number of high consumption of urea production capacity, China's urea addition to fully meet domestic industrial and agricultural production needs, the amount should also be to export in order to improve the domestic supply and demand, which would help China's nitrogenous fertilizer industry, the long-term stability and development; the international market, not the gap between supply and demand of urea, which determines the cost of production is relatively high even though China's urea export is also very difficult to occur properly relaxed "Export excessive" basically does not cause the domestic supply.
Urea are resource and energy conversion products, domestic urea should first meet domestic industrial and agricultural demand, this principle is that we absolutely must adhere to and comply with, nor should support national policy not to encourage the export of urea.
Urea production in the apparent oversupply situation, allow enterprises to participate in international competition as appropriate, make full use of international and domestic markets for the sustainable development of China's chemical fertilizer industry is also necessary. Recommended to ensure domestic demand, service on the basis of the three rural issues to work out a suitable and relatively long-term stability of China's national conditions and the export tariff policy, both absorb excess domestic production capacity but also ensures that the domestic fertilizer prices relatively stable. The current situation, in order to ease the market because of oversupply leading to low for a longer period of time to the entire loss resulting from the pressure of nitrogen fertilizer industry, suggest that the state can further reduce the tariff restrictions on exports of urea.
Suggested that the state of the fertilizer industry, the relevant departments to formulate a long-term development plan, accelerating the integration of fertilizer within the industry to avoid the blindness of the domestic fertilizer production capacity expansion, to encourage cost advantages, superior resources and technical advantages of large-scale fertilizer production enterprises bigger and stronger . (From Yi)
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