Three factors raise the price of urea
Time：2009-11-30 Read：1990second
Following the October mid-month of urea market remained sluggish after the recent national urea prices began to rebound slightly, with steady price trend than one month ago to pick up, for the cold winter to bring touch of warmth. The price of urea rebound led to three main factors: electricity, oil, transportation and other raw material cost increases; exports, domestic demand and other aspects of the market pull; some enterprises parking leading to tightened supply.
Factor 1: raw materials prices
Urea as a huge chemical energy products, and now the price has been close to the cost of any necessary resources will be a price increase of about market prices, the energy densities of the recent price rise, causing the price rise of urea. First, electricity prices, the recent national non-residential electricity prices an average of 0.028 yuan per kilowatt-hour, more than a few days ago rumors of rising even higher rate of 0.02-0.025 yuan. At the same time, the recent completion of the latest oil prices were last revised, rising oil prices will increase transportation costs, electricity and oil prices, will greatly increase the urea production costs and operating expenses, which is urea price rise rigidity factor.
In addition, the recent focus of attention of the industry is nothing more than natural gas prices. At present about 20% of China's urea companies using natural gas as raw material, the level of gas prices a great influence on the urea market. From the current domestic gas price analysis, in 2008 the domestic price of natural gas is very low, with an average ex-factory price is only 0.93 yuan / cubic meter, equivalent to the price of crude oil is equivalent to 21 dollars / barrel, only 18% of the price of crude oil, and gas is all gas fertilizer consumption of the most expensive. Has been calls for reform of natural gas is high. Although the prices of Development and Reform Commission Secretary, November 19, said Cao Changqing, natural gas reforming will not be introduced this year, but industry insiders say, natural gas price reform in line with the general direction of China's resource price reform, the general trend of reform will inevitably lead to natural gas, natural gas price increases.
Factor 2: Market pull
Domestic urea market are off-season, the market demand for mainly by exports, light storage, Dong Chu and a small number of workers and peasants with fertilizer boost. 2009 to 2010, China plans to light storage 8 million tons of urea, in quantity than last year increased significantly, thus easing the domestic overcapacity resulting from market pressures. Due to the recent Chengchuqiye getting goods have resulted in some manufacturers have price increases, thus driving the peripheral market prices. In Dong Chu, the primary dealer attitude differences, some dealers began in October after getting goods were not only low prices and abundant supply into November, some dealers started Dong Chu, businesses reserve is also a push factor in urea prices.
Starting from November 1, urea will be implemented export tariffs on 10% of the off-season, which means that exports of fertilizers and also to enter a period of relatively good, especially now that the international oil price has to return to 80 U.S. dollars / barrel occasion, some market participants Also on the international oil prices led the international fertilizer prices, thereby stimulating exports of fertilizer given to a larger expectations. In fact, many large-scale circulation enterprises have already signed a contract with manufacturers to start getting goods waiting for export, sales manager of a manufacturing enterprise, the United States each year 5.7 million tons of urea gap by the financial crisis up to now not the demand is projected to the U.S. market will be some action in the near future. Southeast Asia and other countries will be purchasing in the near future, but also the current international prices of chemical products for the export of urea has played a certain role. Meanwhile, the fertilizer plant fertilizer and a small amount of raw materials from agriculture and industry is also digesting the domestic urea fertilizer production capacity has become an indispensable factor in the current round of price increases.
Factor 3: sourcing Zouqiao
At present, many domestic manufacturers are struggling to make ends meet urea, or even lose money do not want to stop, but the latest data show that in November stopping the urea manufacturers have increased over the previous month, which means that domestic production capacity will be reduced, these manufacturers of parking will inevitably lead to tensions in the domestic supply, supply and demand relationship will bring any change. Take Hebei markets, since the second half of this year, the province 16 urea production enterprises, half of one after another parking, parking in northern Hebei enterprises are 10-20 million tons of production capacity mainly small businesses, these enterprises do not have to drive the current plan, Only the East Light, King of urea plant and a few other normal production. According to insiders, with the coal, electricity, natural gas, freight and other price increases, there will be companies under pressure after another stop, which means that next year's spring season in northern Hebei, the province will not be a large number of products, can only be on Foreign sourcing support to the neighboring provinces in order to add vitality of urea production enterprises. Indicates that a manufacturer representative, as long as natural gas prices, Hebei, Henan, with gas from the two companies will stop, Sichuan, many gas companies will also be the first affected.
In addition to these factors, the market remained in the doldrums of the gathering strength of the rebound in prices of urea also caused round. Since the spring of this year, after the domestic urea prices have remained at low levels only in the autumn sowing some frequently prior to oscillation, but still not optimistic on the overall situation, continuing a six-month slump finally the same time under the action of a number of factors glimmer of hope.
Urea prices rebound as markets turn for the better, but also bring new challenges for the dealer. As part of the dealer is not stocking before, at the time of the purchase price of urea will increase the operating risk, a lot of momentum in the face of such dealers can not take reckless actions, holding cash at hand is still holding a wait and see attitude, but with the rising prices of raw materials and Dan Chu arrival of the peak, the recent drop is unlikely that urea prices, so dealers are still patiently waiting for the opportunity to quickly spotted stocking. Last year, many dealers have experienced the "no pre-stocking, stocking the medium-term flock led to prices, spring, when prices plummeted" process, in last year's bitter lessons, this year's winter stocking dealers will be even more cautious. At the same time, 800 million tons of light storage task, whilst in the current market and help ease the pressure on the role of manufacturers, but the "loser Xiao Xiao Cheng is also" fear that eight million tons of urea will be the future of the "bomb", China's spring season However, the demand for 20 million tons of urea, 800 million tons of light reserves, dealers throughout the winter reserves, coupled with the output of the time while the supply of the market, an oversupply situation will recur, so next year will not be much increase in urea prices .
However, broad industry environment, urea fertilizer price hikes will push the market warmer. Currently ammonium phosphate, potash fertilizer prices some time ago in varying degrees in comparison to upgrade, coupled with the current round of urea prices, these favorable factors will drive the market pick up fertilizer. (Zhang Tao)
皖公网安备 34120002001531号