Terminator high potash prices: not a person or a product, but rather a set of global factors.

        When we Marketer Michael Porter (Michael Porter) five forces model investigated the K-sector, not difficult to find due to uneven distribution of global potash fertilizer resources and resources of the double impact of monopoly in potash production, raw material consumption and final consumption of the three a link, K absolute advantage manufacturing accounted for, thus brought to the potash manufacturing high monopoly profits; high monopoly profits attract new entrants to the hottest, so that non-potassium fertilizer industry, investors have huge support capital into the potash production industry, potash industry to intensified market competition strength of the trend; although not too much potassium can be the ideal alternative, but as a branch of fertilizer products, but with N and P in a certain extent, competing relations, in extreme market conditions could partly replace each other, thus affecting the supply and demand of potash fertilizer market balance, in the past three years, the high price of potash from the deep-down that is proof of that.

        Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer supply and demand conditions and market prices, and the potash market supply and demand and market prices are highly relevant. That is, although to varying degrees because of supply and demand balance in the same period of nitrogen, phosphorus, potash price volatility and the pace may vary, but the price drop and a general upward trend is consistent. Potash prices high and low is a relative concept, one relative to food prices and the purchasing power of farmers, the second category relative to alternative and other alternatives in terms of product prices, as with nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium all varieties of fertilizer, the main nutrient gradually to market surplus, to provide nitrogen / phosphorus / potassium three main nutrients in fertilizer products, the average price of a single nutrient further convergence trend.

        Through the years 2008,2009 and 2010 in July over the same period the main fertilizer varieties of price data in-depth research and analysis, relational data can be drawn two sets of parity, one potash prices and urea, diammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer prices The parity factor; second compound fertilizer urea fertilizer prices and raw materials, monoammonium phosphate and potash price parity factor. These two sets of data through observation is not difficult to draw two important conclusions: First, when the potash and compound fertilizer, urea, diammonium phosphate price ratio coefficient is less than 1.3,1.5 and 0.9, respectively, the potash price increase in power, One of the most important relationship is the ratio of the price of potash fertilizer and compound fertilizer ratio of diammonium second, again, the urea, potash and diammonium relationship between the ideal of parity 1; Second, because most of urea and monoammonium phosphate fertilizer as the main raw materials, urea and monoammonium phosphate and potash fertilizer price ratio relations and relations with the fertilizer price ratio similarity, when urea and compound fertilizer MAP Price relations and relations with the fertilizer price ratio is less than 1 and 1.2, respectively, urea and MAP prices up momentum. Price rises and the price ratio coefficient increased threshold, and potash, urea and MAP market supply and demand condition.

        In China, 70% of the potash fertilizer used in the production, only 20% sold directly to end users - farmers, another 10% for the industry, and thus the market will be directly affected by potash fertilizer market. Compound fertilizer production and fertilizer production line manufacturer determines the one hand, according to nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium flexibility to adjust the market price of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium ratio of raw material inputs in order to achieve the objective of cost control; on the other hand can According to the market price of fertilizer and demand conditions, flexibility to adjust product formulations to achieve the product marketable and profit maximization objectives.

        From the current situation of China's fertilizer market supply and demand point of view, the worst excess of MAP, followed by urea, potash is also self-sufficient enough to rely on imports. Therefore, the MAP and the market price of urea will be suppressed, while potash market price will be increased to some extent, while potash prices have increased will be fertilizer, monoammonium phosphate and urea market, excess supply constraints. Therefore, the terminator of high potassium, the first is a serious surplus of fertilizer, followed by a serious surplus of MAP, is once again moving towards surplus diammonium phosphate and urea; potash fertilizer caused by competition with potash prices, will be five years thereafter. (Peach)