With the use of fertilizer in July of the end of the summer, the domestic fertilizer market downturn, a slight rebound, we analyze and judge for the convenience of the late autumn, winter fertilizer market, I initiate the following five aspects from the late fall, winter fertilizer market for a brief analysis, only the reader reference.

        Fertilizer Product Demand Analysis: China is a large agricultural country with 1.3 billion people, fertilizer demand is rigid, combined with national policy to benefit farmers, labor costs, significantly improved the labor market with reasonable regulation, the income of peasants increased market expectations of inflation, rising food prices will stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers, the market demand for fertilizer will grow substantially.

        Fertilizer productivity analysis: the past decade in the international and domestic market remained robust, the rapid expansion of domestic fertilizer production capacity, production exceeded 60 million tons of urea, MAP, DAP production capacity has broken 12 million tons, and BB fertilizer compound fertilizer enterprises everywhere, far beyond the domestic fertilizer demand, resulting in a serious surplus of domestic fertilizer production capacity. But the last two years operation of the market situation, production is very rational and capabilities, on-demand production, with the self-regulating market supply and demand and production plans, regardless of the cost scale enterprises significantly reduce the blind pursuit of, and now most enterprises avoid market risk, are taken to market ability, the actual production company much less.

        Distributors, farmers of mental activity: the market price of fertilizer by nearly years of deep rate cut affect the market significantly preventing risks are distributors stronger sense of purchase cautious, conservative, delay getting goods, wait and see attitude weight; season when high prices and, Kuaijinkuaichu psychology is very prominent, and dealers of this state of mind in the latter part of the market will continue. Psychological condition is very realistic to say the peasants, especially in recent years, more farmers to buy fertilizer Yue night benefit, almost the same farmers formed a consensus on when to use fertilizer when to buy fertilizer, I would like to Jinguan domestic fertilizer production can be large, but dealers Bao Shoucai fertilizer, farmers buy fertilizer mental delay which sooner or later will lead to strong sales a year when the local fertilizer market supply and demand contradiction, the more sales the higher fertilizer prices, this situation most likely to occur in Northeast markets.

       International environmental analysis: the domestic and international market integration in the international market price determines the domestic fertilizer fertilizer market conditions, post-nitrogen, phosphate, potash fertilizer market are determined by international market conditions in winter, the international fertilizer market price reversal will encourage, promote the activation of domestic fertilizer market conditions.

       Product Cost Analysis: Cost of fertilizer prices determine long-term trend, the supply and demand is only short-term impact, the cost of the final price should fluctuate around the floating range of the corporate marketing strategy. Therefore, to understand, analyze the market to analyze the cost of fertilizer production, fertilizer raw materials of the trend, in that I am not 11 of sulfuric acid, phosphate, ammonium chloride, and other basic raw materials, only urea, phosphate, potash, fertilizer latter trend make a bold prediction.

       Urea: urea Features One of the price-sensitive, low to stimulate sales growth; Second, with the fluctuation of supply and demand. Supply exceeds demand prices fall fast, short supply, prices rise fast. The current price of urea in the enterprise variable costs fluctuate near the line, this situation will last until 11-12 months, and then there will be a sudden rise of urea. Fluctuations in urea prices is expected to range from late 1550-1800 yuan / ton.

K: K up and down very much depends on the import of domestic potash fertilizer and potash fertilizer supply and demand balance. When the price dropped to a certain low K (and N, P single nutrient balance), would stimulate domestic demand with limited resources, after all, dependent on the domestic potash fertilizer imports to meet demand this situation led domestic potash fertilizer import potash sync up; when the potash price increases to to some extent deviated from the N, P Price, balances in the market, decline in demand of domestic potash fertilizer, potash fertilizer to meet domestic demand. Oversupply situation appears when the synchronization of domestic potash fertilizer potash imports led down. Since this year, a thousand years in Qinghai by floods, the Qinghai potash fertilizer production, transport were affected to varying degrees, post-market demand will depend on imported potash fertilizer, potash fertilizer price trends raise - smooth - elevation, cross-border trade fluctuations in the range of 2200-2600 K yuan / ton.

AP: Diammonium, an ammonium market depends entirely on the international market conditions in winter and autumn Diammonium market will be relatively stable and not fluctuate wildly, the winter mainly depends on the international market; autumn and winter there will be a certain fluctuations in the price of ammonium, fluctuations in the range of 1750-2000 yuan / ton.

Fertilizer: fall, winter fertilizer market would be more stable, with fluctuations in costs, less volatility, late fertilizer price trends: up - down - up, 45% of the content of the fertilizer factory price fluctuations in the range of 1800-2000 yuan / ton.

        In summary analysis, the author is optimistic about the fertilizer market in the late. Reason 1, the cost-push prices of fertilizer products. Basic raw materials (such as coal, electricity, oil, natural gas, sulfuric acid, etc.) rise, the market inflation expectations, logistics costs, these factors are the driving force to promote the rising costs. 2, the market focused on supply and demand contradiction of market concentration market driven fertilizer prices. Exports, the market inventory reduction, limited production companies, shutdown will lead to reduced domestic supply. These factors will lead to short-term focus on capacity demand the release of supply and demand contradiction with the market concentration, short-term demand-pull market prices of fertilizer. Market conditions last year, these two factors are also at work, promoting fertilizer product prices. Fall 2009, winter fertilizer market will be repeated in 2010, but will raise the low fertilizer, fertilizer high point we should not expect too much. (Yan Jinfu)