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Beware of the international transmission effect of rising food prices
Source:China Fertilizer Net   Author:Ling Lan   Time:2010-08-17   Read:1247second  

         National Bureau of Statistics released on August 11 shows in July CPI rose 3.3% in China rose to a new high during the year shows inflation expectations management is not optimistic. The recent soaring international food prices also led to his transfer to the domestic agricultural products and thus increase the concerns about inflationary pressures.

         
Into the international wheat futures prices in August had been broken in recent 22 months history. Chicago Mercantile Exchange in September corn futures prices since July has also risen more than 2 percent.

         
The southwest drought, floods affected the South and the North's expectations higher domestic grain prices went up. Before garlic, green beans and other agricultural products had price increases as tidal wave of Relay. Reflected in July's CPI rose 6.8% in food prices rose the highest in eight categories of commodities. Obviously, if domestic prices with international prices is bound to increase linkage macro-control more difficult.

         
But with countries to strengthen price monitoring to increase efforts to put on the market prices of food staples in China now stop rising stabilized. Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market in July China's grain market analysis report in July in the national food grain and oil wholesale price index wholesale price index for the 177.22 up 0.51% last month alone.

         
State Grain Administration Zeng Liying, deputy director has repeatedly said that as China's major food crops have been guaranteed more than 95% market control ability of self-sufficiency rate is no doubt therefore prices will remain stable later.

In recent years, the people "food basket" and some erratic fluctuations in agricultural prices and CPI inflation management has become the greatest threat from the input-type inflationary pressures are exacerbated by the presence of this worry.

Although our largest category of food crops such as rice, wheat self-sufficiency but higher soybean, corn and other edible oil consumption to increase because imports is growing. Department of Agriculture statistics show that from January to June this year, China was 2.484 million tons of grain imports rose 60.7%.

The most typical is the soybean. Sui Zhao China's import of soybean increasingly frequented by foreign transfer soybean market is not only the impact of domestic soybean De Kong Jian Qi Ye Huan international large-scale grain and oil to China on domestic expansion Bujubinggou quickly 获得 grain and oil companies greater market share 而 domestic soybean Jihusangshi Le pricing . It is understood that the major oil extraction in China more than 90 enterprises have 64 to become a foreign-owned or joint venture.

Although not involved in the food production side, but deep in the downstream food processing sectors and multinational companies are accelerating penetration tentacles into the upper reaches of the seed and fertilizer production and marketing industry.

The field of transnational corporations in China accelerated infiltration of food means that fluctuations in international food prices to increase domestic transmission channels. In the current international food prices soaring occasion to alert the international food business increased due to increased costs and lower food prices to increase domestic grain prices and food price fluctuations to the grain market regulation and the stability of inflation expectations, the pressure.

China's huge population, has a huge consumption of food and agricultural products while the WTO on foreign investment in China's grain circulation of the transition period ended in 2008 led to a food areas of increased interaction with foreign markets became a necessity. In this trend is undoubtedly to prevent fluctuations of grain prices abroad, the impact of the domestic market and the domestic inflation expectations.

Experts suggest that natural disasters in the current trend is expected to seriously affect the domestic prices of agricultural products to step up monitoring to prevent speculative foreign capital speculators opportunity.

In the long term to prevent fluctuations in international prices to domestic transmission must enhance our ability to promote self-sufficiency in food grain production from traditional to modern agriculture increased resistance to market risks. (Ling Lan)

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