Every year, coal shortage become so power companies and coal companies are feeling the topic of headache. 2010 in the recently held forum on Economic operation of coal, Hubei, Guizhou, Hebei and other places of industry representatives expressed serious emergency coal stocks. The railway capacity bottlenecks, he was known as the industry following the power cuts on the coal market, after the most important factor. But experts pointed out that the idea behind the capacity bottleneck is still the system causes the production and demand contradiction of convergence at work.
Bottlenecks in coal transportation capacity increased tension
According to the China Coal Industry Association senior expert Li Chaolin introduced into December, Hubei Province, into the most intense year in the month of coal stocks. Two-thirds of the province's electricity needs to rely on hydropower support, at the end and beginning of the dry season, the only highly dependent on thermal power, which the province a tremendous pressure on electricity supply, coal transportation capacity bottlenecks in the power cuts after a Another problem is scratching their heads.
One of the coal industry to the "First Financial Daily" said that the current inventory of coal 200 million tons of Hubei Province, but the stock is less than 50% effective, and most of the low-quality high-sulfur coal, the reserves at the beginning of the year so far has been tension, the most severe stage. Reporter noted that the current inventory of power plants in Hubei that some still insufficient to meet the needs of the week.

        The source said, Hubei coal rail capacity bottlenecks become the main cause of emergency. "The province's coal resources are in the Midwest, this is precisely the tension of the regional rail capacity, so the province's coal resources and capacity do not match; while outside the province by the capacity bottlenecks in resources, but also aggravated the tense situation of coal."
Industry believe that the westward movement of the coal transport capacity bottlenecks in the coal market also affected. Li Chaolin told the "First Financial Daily", due to mainly rely on rail transport of coal in China, while the end of the year while the railway to take food, edible oil and other important goods transport task, so the capacity bottleneck in itself there is a certain influence on the coal market. The new situation is that in previous years, coal transportation routes from the Shanxi, Henan, Shandong and other provinces in north China coal off, shipped the southeast coast of the market. But over the past two years, from Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other western provinces out of the coal as the main market, the coal transportation capacity of the bottleneck occurred westward.
"So, now the real shortage of coal do not increase the local coal, coal-producing province restricted capacity, the coal deposit, but added ballast can not afford the weight of the fast." Li Chaolin said.
Qinhuangdao Port, Deputy General Manager Wang Biao is forecast recorded in 2011, the coal rail capacity constraints will be the biggest factor under the water. "Has been the demand side along with large coal enterprises to run, along with large and small coal companies to run power companies, which is the current situation in the country, so large-scale coal production bases in the West continue to expand, the coal transported from further afield to Qinhuangdao port distribution, constraints the convergence of production and demand. "WANG Lu Biao said.
Underlying causes of conflict lies in the system
However, experts pointed out that "coal shortage" is not just behind the surface of the railway capacity bottlenecks and other constraints, a deeper level, or coal and electricity price formation mechanism at work.
China Coal Industry Association, Wang Xianzheng that part of the province's electricity shortage to make it clear that no money or no capacity, other provinces, "import" price is not the province of coal power plants is the accepted main cause of electricity shortage. If the power plant coal inventory is really an emergency, why should we care about the price?
Li Chaolin also believes that the current shortage of coal stocks and more power plants, not coal shortage, but the two sides due to the current coal coal contract differences. In short, the current market price of coal power plants that high willingness to purchase coal on the market is not strong. At the same time, contract coal prices rising coal prices is limited, affecting its outward enthusiasm for coal contracts.
Wang said energy analyst interest, from the current convergence of coal production and demand situation reached a contract, the number is declining, indicating that between coal and power enterprises increasingly difficult to reach an agreement. Coal, coal companies are more willing to stay in the spot market, rather than long-term contracts, because the actual market prices to be much higher than the contract price. Although forced by the mandatory requirements of the Government, they have a certain number of contracts signed, but the number is declining. Therefore, the pressure forced the price of electricity companies in recent years has become increasingly more dependent on imported coal supply.
But the analysts also said that despite the price differences, the coal companies believe that coal prices should rise, but because of the government's administrative measures to suppress, it is expected that coal prices next year, sure to rise. Therefore, "despite the relatively abundant around the plant is currently stock, and short-term Government requested not raising their prices of coal, so power plants can support a period of time, but long-term will not receive the goods will surely be too much." (Li)