New export tariff policy after the introduction of a decline in urea prices, companies are not enthusiastic about the production, the market for the supply of fertilizer next spring, has some concerns. However, the China National Chemical Information Center fertilizer Chen Li, director of the China Securities Daily News in an interview that as the urea industry overcapacity, higher potential output growth, the estimates, next spring nitrogen supply will not have much problems, the price of urea coming season after fertilization may occur free-fall style fall.
Spring fertilizer needs to meet
China Securities News: Not long ago, in the petroleum, chemicals in the sea, Hubei Yihua, Shanxi Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group, Shandong Luxi Group, sales of the five people responsible for the N group during the nitrogen supply of spring next year to discuss the situation after that, the state raised export tariffs on fertilizer , though inhibition of urea exports, but the objective is also hit market confidence, the urea market transactions stagnation, rapid price decline, companies cut severely, if the current operating rate can not be effectively enhanced the supply of urea during spring next year will be tight. For this problem, how do you think?
Chen Li: next spring nitrogen supply should be not so serious. January to October this year, China's urea output fell 2.94 million tons, while exports increased last year compared with 174 million tons, the two together, the domestic market, reduce the supply of 4.68 million tons of urea, so many people worried about the spring season comes, the market supply.
In this case, countries have taken measures. November 19 the State Council issued the stability of the price, "State 16", the clearly not power cuts on the fertilizer business, to continue to implement preferential policies for fertilizer production, fertilizer to protect the power and gas. In addition, it is to raise export tariffs discourage exports to ensure domestic supply, this December and next January to June are the implementation of 110% of the export tariffs, high tariffs, 2 months ahead of time, some can reduce the urea export 100 million tons.
Urea, excess industry capacity, production is also a great potential for growth. According to expert estimates, demand in the spring when more than 2,000 tons of urea. This year due to production cuts caused by energy conservation, and even had a daily output of only 12 tons of the situation, but after next January, 500 million tons of urea per month over the issue back to the small, four months of production to more than 20 million tons , coupled with the light before the storage, urea supply will not be much problem.
China Securities Journal: nitrogen excess capacity will continue for how long? How future growth in demand?
Chen Li: urea industry capacity in 2009 reached 66 million tons, the excess of 20% ,2010-2015, and nearly 10 million tons planned production capacity, while demand growth has been very slow, and even more stable, excess capacity will persist. Some people worry that the demand for urea will take the old path of developed countries, downward trend, which may not appear in the short term. As China densely long-standing situation, but different from the western farming methods, so the trend of China's urea demand in developed countries will not completely duplicate the road.
 However, excess capacity does not want to be too serious. "Twelve Five" period, energy consumption index is not up to stop production for 3 years and 1 year loss of more than about 500 million tons production capacity need to exit, in more than 300 million tons of petrochemical production capacity is also plans to gradually withdraw.
China Securities Journal: urea prices in November up to 2,000 yuan per ton, only 1900 yuan per ton, has come to cost line, the future price movements, how do you think?
Chen Li: January-March 2011, urea prices high and volatile, mainly due to the production of nitrogen gas in winter, electricity supply, coal prices remain high, the release of insufficient production capacity, reduced supply. 2011 April-June is peak season for fertilizer, the price will decline was down style, where in June the price reached its lowest point 1600-1700 yuan / ton, mainly due to natural gas, coal, electric power supply gradually enough, a significant increase in urea production , light storage delivery of goods, supply exceeds demand gradually, and the high tariffs on exports of hopelessness. 7-10 months is the low tariff period, the pressure of oversupply of urea may decrease, prices will be upward. November 2011 to March 2012, prices high and volatile in turn, but the overall level of less than a year earlier. (Gu Xin )