International crude oil prices have recently become active again, the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures prices is particularly evident. Since early October, from about 75 U.S. dollars / barrel along the way low rise to $ 100 / barrel near the fluctuations, an increase of 30%. Brent crude oil futures prices are $ 100 / barrel and above high oscillation, the current price is about 108 yuan / barrel. Rising oil prices will eventually transfer to the CPI.
By the uncertainty of the U.S. economic recovery, the European debt crisis and the emerging economies and other factors affecting demand, international oil prices or the next $ 100 / barrel near the fluctuations. However, crude oil today is not just a commodity, it is increasingly obvious financial attributes, so the fluctuations, or as normal. China's inflation is expected to decline in the current context, the international crude oil prices has apparently become a discordant episode.
Specifically, one of China's dependence on crude oil imports more than 50%, crude oil imports last year reached 239 million tons, from January to October this year, a total of over 209 million tons; the second is the scale of China's chemical industry, chemical industry in China in 2010 output value of 5.23 trillion yuan, according to the exchange rate has surpassed the U.S., ranking first in the world. Therefore, the international crude oil prices, will soon transfer to China, the affected areas upstream from the oil refinery began to gradually enlarge, and eventually part of the direct impact of PPI to the CPI to reflect on.
China's current oil pricing mechanism is controlled indirectly with international oil prices, which in a certain period of time (22 days), the international oil price ups and downs over a certain range (4%), China's refined oil prices will make appropriate adjustments. Since the last adjustment of oil prices since the beginning of international oil prices, the timing and magnitude of view, may soon open a new price adjustment window, then oil prices could rise.
Such as gasoline, diesel and other refined oil price increases will directly affect the CPI. Current transport and communications products accounted for 9.95% of CPI, food and housing than the proportion of commodity prices, this value is not large, but oil prices will affect the PPI. Unusually large oil industry chain, from plastics, synthetic rubber, synthetic resin, fiber, etc., until the final consumer. To the inventory of the current real economy is still in progress, oil prices, there are some obstacles to the downstream transmission, but after a number of intermediate links, and time lag, will eventually affect the CPI. Despite the decline in inflation expectations, which should also attract attention.