The focus of the annual coal contract negotiations soon to open. Recently, media reports said the National Development and Reform Commission are working on the transportation of coal production this year-up work required guidance, to be made, key contract coal prices in the year 2012 the maximum increase of 5%, including Qinhuangdao Port, including the large northern port 5500 calories spot price of coal shall not exceed 800 yuan / ton.
Reporters from the China Coal Transportation Association official confirming that the association has indeed developed the transportation of coal production to be convergence of new programs, and reported to the State Development and Reform Commission, awaiting approval.
Key contract for coal in this "New Deal" measures, experts said, to some extent, this program is expected to reduce the cost of power plant next year, ease the pressure on power plant operation. But for the coal companies, will increase its operating costs. In the long run, coal prices will be passed on to the power plant cost pressures body.
Deal coal to be "combined"
National Bureau of Statistics recently released data show that the first nine months of this year, the domestic coal industry, main business costs rose 48.19 percent, higher than the national industry average of nearly 20 percentage points. China Coal Industry Association had also released a report by industrial prices, improve mine safety standards, and income increase, deposit and loan interest rate adjustments, environmental control and other factors to increase the stack into the rigidity of promotion, has been a marked increase in the cost of coal enterprises .
Many experts point out that strong push hard to deliver key contract coal "power limit of the coal protection" policy mind.
Central University of Finance and of Economic Research, Associate Professor Xing Chinese coal mine, told reporters on the China Securities Journal, focusing on coal contract prices rose 5%, mean of 5500 kcal next year key contract coal prices will reach 525 yuan / ton, which compared to a recent period of market coal 850 yuan / ton price far apart, and the price of coal to the port is limited to 800 yuan / ton level. "This will force coal companies to re-take before the 'non-compliance', 'reselling contract coal' of old, there is no guarantee the final focus of the coal supply contract." Xing Lei said.
Everbright Securities analyst also pointed out that, by executive order of the northern port coal price is unlikely. At the same time, even if the policy limit, operability is not strong, and may even result in reduced production, increased demand may be, making a long-term shortage of coal products.
China Coal Economic Research Association, said Secretary-General Zhao Jialian, if you want to take price measures should include the Ministry of Railways and the Ministry of Transport and other departments, including the introduction of a package of measures, the word "portfolio" in order to achieve good results.
Rare plants actually good
According to the latest November 28, 2011 Qinhuangdao coal price market view, the 5500 calories of the coal settlement price (ie the port spot price) for 840-850 yuan / ton, as compared with the current electricity price calculation, coal execution price of the New Deal, which means next year will be at least 5500 kcal coal prices down 40-50 yuan, at least for coal-fired power saving 6% of fuel costs.
Xing Lei said the contract coal "New Deal" to increase the cost of coal enterprises, while in the short term can indeed reduce the cost of coal-fired power plant pressure, effective protection of the winter heating period the case of coal demand to increase the stability of supply. But in the long run, because the coal companies' shift to lower cost pressures, "the industry inertia, the pressure will increase the cost of the plant.
More industry analysts pointed out that the convergence of production to be transported once a year, involving a key contract coal policy may also be a year certain. If the policy limit can not be sustained, then the policy once after release, there could lead to retaliatory coal prices rebound.
Zhao Jialian that straighten out the relationship between coal only through key contract coal policy in hopes to make a fuss, fear can not "symptoms", not "cure."