First, trade policy tightening. Exports, countries in the protection of domestic demand, based on the appropriate export permit, but not laissez-faire exports, reported 2012 export policy will be more severe.
Second, overcapacity continues to intensify, the spring resource surplus. China in 2011 up to 68.86 million tons of urea production capacity, demand is only 45 million tons, even if only 80% capacity utilization, production of excess capacity still reach 10 million tons. According to statistics, in 2012 the new domestic production capacity 4.6 million tons of urea, industry overcapacity situation further. It is estimated that around the end of 2011 carry-over stocks at 500 million tons, plus 1-4 in 2012 to about 20 million tons per month, will supply up to 2,500 tons, while the actual demand of urea in spring 1630 tons, surplus amounted to 8.7 million tons.
Third, the low market price of the last three years in the spring run. Statistics show that nearly three years, the national basic trend of the market in spring of urea as follows: the previous year from November to February next year, nitrogen fertilizer market in the short storage period, driven in getting goods, prices are steadily rising; 3 - In April, nitrogen fertilizer market is progressively sinking stage, the price a year ago.
Fourth, the dealer confidence is clearly insufficient. The current in the Shandong region 2100 yuan / ton and the price is clearly not authorized dealers, the Northeast is still a calm. Past two years, but early losses getting goods dealers, led directly to primary dealers, the urea business panic mentality, and even resentment. Current inventory is relatively small due to social, some time ago, some small dealers in the factory started getting goods under the policy incentives, has become the price of urea to promote one of the main round. Small dealers getting goods directly from manufacturers, dealers will be reduced from the large volume of mining, which is not conducive to the timely supply, vertical flow.
Fifth, the international urea market is not optimistic. India's purchases of about 100 tons of urea, the final compromise to end supplier, although mixed with the rupiah between the devaluation of the factors, but the reason is still the sharp drop in international demand for urea, leading to short-term supply and demand imbalance in the international urea prices have fallen sharply . Expected later in other regions demand remained weak in the case, not the international urea market is still in the doldrums before, prices, or will decline slightly.
Sixth, fertilizer bad market conditions. Recently, the fertilizer market, announced a winter storage prices, 45% of the chlorine-based compound fertilizer prices in 2400-2500 yuan / ton, 45% of the sulfur-based fertilizer prices in 2550-2600 yuan / ton, the price is not high, but the situation is acquiring and poor, enterprises are now produced by a single, small-volume purchases of raw materials, the intensity of the urea market is not supported. Furthermore, compared with other types of fat, high current urea market trend, then may return to reason.
Seven, the macroeconomic situation, weather and other uncertainties. By the U.S. debt and the debt crisis, the global economic situation is not optimistic, economists expect global economic growth will be extremely weak, and increased risk of recession, the uncertainty of the future increase in global economic situation. 2012, the uncertainty of the international economic environment and domestic economy itself intensification of conflicts, making China's economy is facing a severe test. Experts pointed out that the 2012 can be regarded as China's economy from rapid growth in the quick transition to a long year. China's future GDP and CPI will be a combination of "10 +2" Time to enter "8 +4" era, that is about 8% GDP growth in the CPI plus 4% growth rate, instead of the previous 10% and 2% of GDP CPI growth portfolio.
From the above analysis, the market situation is not optimistic about the spring of urea in the current price of the goods, operating at higher risk. (Xiaolei)