Rapid growth of coal production resources to speed up the whole "Three West" focus
By the rapid growth in demand, rising coal prices shocks and other factors, in 2011, China's coal production continued to maintain a rapid growth momentum. According to the National Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau data show, the first eight months, China's coal production totaled 2.46 billion tons, an increase of 16.7%, the average monthly output of 308 million tons of coal. Accordingly, a conservative estimate, the year 2011, China's coal production will exceed 3.7 million tons, according to the State Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau estimates the base of 3.41 billion tons last year, the year 2011, an increase of coal production to over 300 million tons, an increase in 9% to 10%.
Coal production in the country continued to grow with the overall situation, the regional structure of the coal supply is also significant changes in coal production and further to the West Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other "Three West" regional concentration. Coal from the provinces department data show that 10 months of 2011, West Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, respectively, to complete production of 569.79 million tons of raw coal, 709.78 million tons and 333.65 million tons, representing an increase of 138.15 million tons last year, respectively, 11775 million tons and 42.33 million tons, up 32.0%, 19.9% ​​and 14.5%. The first 10 months, "Three West" region an increase of the total raw coal output of 298.23 million tons, an increase of 22.7%. Year 2011, West Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi will complete the production of 691 million tons of raw coal, 856 million tons and 40,000 tons, an increase of about 167 million tons, respectively, 115 million tons and 4400 tons, an increase of approximately 32.1 %, 15.5% and 12.4%. Expected to "Three West" region an increase of the total coal production of about 326 million tons, an increase of about 20%.
As can be seen from the above data, this year's coal production increment mainly concentrated in the "Three West" area, which means that Inner Mongolia, Shanxi Coal Transport further increase the pressure. Meanwhile, other provinces (cities, districts) less coal production growth potential, "Three West" area undertaken to protect the country's coal supply pressure is also increasing.
Production of energy-intensive products mainly fast-growing coal demand remains strong
2011 is the "second five" first year, the development of enthusiasm, fixed asset investment continued to grow rapidly, affected, electricity, steel, cement, glass, synthetic ammonia production and other major energy-intensive products have increased rapidly momentum, coal demand continues to maintain strong momentum.
First, the thermal power generation capacity and building materials production growth, driven by continued strong demand for thermal coal. As the economy continues rapid growth, electricity demand is more robust. The first 10 months, the national scale power generating capacity of enterprises amounted to 3.8181 trillion kwh, up 12.25%. Meanwhile, since the beginning of North China, Yangtze River and Southwest experienced a series of severe droughts, water and electricity output continued obstruction, the first 10 months, large-scale hydroelectric power generation enterprises amounted to 517.5 billion kwh, down 2.22%. China's thermal power and hydropower are the two most important power, both the total power generation capacity of China's total installed capacity of more than 95%, water and electricity output blocked, naturally, need to increase output to compensate for thermal power electricity supply gap. The first 10 months, the national scale thermal power generating capacity of enterprises amounted to 3.1525 trillion kwh, up 14.26%. Annual thermal power generation capacity is expected to increase more than 14%, thermal power generation coal consumption growth will be driven by an increase of about 10%.
In addition, by the rapid growth of investment in fixed assets, particularly real estate investment continues to grow rapidly and other factors, the first 10 months completed 1.70405 billion tons of cement production, an increase of 18%. Expected annual cement output will reach 20 million tons, an increase of 17% or more. Estimated annual coal consumption will also cement industry grew more than 10%.
Second, the rapid growth of steel production, blast furnace coking coal and PCI coal demand is more robust. Since 2011 is the "second five" first year, local economic development are highly motivated, fixed asset investment continued to maintain a high level. Among them, especially in central and western regions, because of its relatively backward infrastructure, the overall fixed-asset investment growth higher than the national level, driven by steel, cement and other building materials needs are growing rapidly. The first 10 months, total investment in fixed assets grew 24.9%, which, Qinghai, Guizhou, Gansu provinces to complete the amount of an increase in fixed assets reached 40% or more, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Chongqing, Shanxi and Hubei provinces in central and western growth rate reached 30%. The first 10 months, the country totaled 536.5 million tons of pig iron and crude steel production, and 580.78 million tons, up respectively 10.5% and 11.1%, while steel production since October has dropped slightly, but the year is expected to pig iron and crude steel production up will increase about 10%. Driven by the rapid growth of steel production, the first 10 months totaled 358.02 million tons of coke production, an increase of 13.38%, even in October after the coke production has dropped, the estimated annual growth rate of coke production increased by more than 10%. Pig iron, crude steel, coke production increased rapidly, driving demand for coking coal and PCI coal rapid growth in the year 2011 the demand for coking coal and PCI coal will increase about 10%.
Finally, ammonia and urea production in turn reduced to rise, driven by demand for smoke-free lump continued to grow. January and February, due to poor market conditions, ammonia and urea production in both the continued low level since the second half of last year; into March, the peak of the domestic fertilizer gradually approaching spring, spring prepared fertilizer demand, while the international market Urea prices rose gradually entering a new round of channel, followed by rapid domestic urea prices rise, domestic ammonia and urea production was significantly increased; into the second half later, in spite of the policy restrictions, urea exports have fallen sharply, but because of the higher domestic price of urea as a whole , ammonia, urea production remains a high level. The first 10 months, totaled 42.52 million tons of synthetic ammonia and urea production and 22.29 million tons, an increase of 6.76%, respectively, and 3.05%. Although down by demand, the price downturn, 11, 12 ammonia and urea production may be down, but the year is expected to yield an increase in ammonia and urea are the first 10 months will be higher than the level, both ammonia and urea production achieved by the turned up to down. Although with continuous improvement to enhance the ammonia production process, raw materials, coal, bituminous coal and lignite in the proportion increasing, Shanxi, Shandong, Henan and other main producing synthetic ammonia and urea, the major coal gasification is still smoke-free lump coal, ammonia and urea production turn reduced to l, is sure to drive demand for smoke-free lump varying degrees of growth.
Coal production continued to grow next year inter-provincial transportation of coal pressure
In recent years, benefiting from rising coal prices continue to shock, the overall profitability of the coal industry strong, the industry continued investment in fixed assets maintained a rapid growth momentum, which is to ensure that coal production capacity and output is essential to maintain growth momentum. National Bureau of Statistics data show that since 2006, coal mining and washing of fixed asset investment growth rate has remained at 23% or more, and mostly in the 23% to 26%, and 10 months of 2011, coal mining and washing Select industry fixed asset investment grew 24.9 percent, 3.2 percentage points over the same period last year. "During" part of the investment in new mines coming on stream in 2012 will be put into operation, in order to protect the national coal production continued to grow.
Although the total investment in fixed assets coal industry still maintained rapid growth momentum, but the capacity investment growth may have slowed down. As the integration of coal resources in recent years, the rapid advance of merger and reorganization of large-scale coal mine enterprises to rapidly increase investment in technical innovation; large coal enterprises in order to achieve economic restructuring, and actively extend the coal industry chain, increasing investment in the downstream industry; in order to improve the rate of coal into the wash In recent years, mostly in the construction of the mine is equipped with the same scale coal washing plant, washing equipment investment. In addition, integration of a large number of small coal mines were shut down, the sheet may exist before the capacity investment gone. Therefore, investment in coal production capacity may have been slowed down, the future of coal production growth will slow down.
In 2011, coal production is mainly concentrated in the new "Three West" area is not by chance, which is closely related to the distribution of coal resources in China. It is foreseeable that in 2012 China's new coal production will continue to focus on Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Xinjiang and other provinces, inter-provincial transportation of coal will further increase the pressure.
In 2011, coal imports are expected to level remained stable
In 2011, China's coal imports will reach 170 million tons, up 4.5% import dependence. As China's coal imports increased, domestic and international coal market to further enhance the mutual impact of imports of coal for domestic coal market supplement is increasingly obvious. If the decline in imports, the domestic price of coal will soon respond to the rise, beginning in March 2011 that round up the price of coal, largely as a result of decline in coal imports. In other words, China's economic development has been inseparable from that part of the import of coal, if China's economy can continue on the basis of the current rapid growth in coal imports in 2012 is unlikely to decline significantly.
2012, China's imports of coal can not be decreased significantly there is another reason that the country "west east coal, coal from north to south" railroad bottleneck still exists. Current rail capacity can not meet all of eastern and southeastern coastal areas, users of coal demand, some of these areas still needs to rely on imported coal and coal companies to meet their own needs. China's coal imports in 2009 and 2010 after two consecutive years of rapid growth, 2011 has obviously slowed down. The reason is mainly because the international market, major coal exporting country's output and export volume of slower growth. In recent years, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Colombia, Canada, seven major coal exporter, in addition to relatively rapid growth of coal production in Indonesia, other countries, coal production increased more slowly than the average annual increase of more than 3 % or less. Slower output growth, export growth potential natural cause little more than 2011, seven major coal exporting countries exports there is no significant increase.
In 2011, Japan earthquake and tsunami led to short-term decline in coal demand, with the gradual recovery of the Japanese economy, demand for coal imports in 2012 is bound to increase. Resources in the international market growth potential is not the case, Japanese imports, means that international market competition will increase. However, if the world economy hit the global financial crisis similar to 2008, when the extreme case, a substantial increase in China's coal imports again the possibility of not much.
Growth in coal demand continues to grow more in 2011 will slow down or
Coal demand depends largely on national economic development, especially as ours is in the industrialization phase of the rapid progress of urbanization in developing countries, economic development, directly determines the pace of growth in coal demand. There is no doubt, in 2012, China's economy will continue to maintain growth momentum, but due to the increasingly complex domestic and international economic situation, China's economic growth rate has slowed or coal demand growth will slow down appropriately.
2012, the external environment facing China's economy will become more severe. As the debt crisis can not be effectively resolved the delay, but the risk is still expanding, in addition, weak economic growth in the euro area, the United States and other major economies, prospects for the same weakness. This case, the United States and Europe is bound to increase trade protection efforts, China's exports will further increase the difficulty of export stimulating effect on economic growth or significantly reduced.
Domestically, accelerate economic restructuring, accelerate the transformation of development mode will continue to lead to slower growth in investment, while the slowdown in export growth is bound to spread to the domestic real economy, leading to real economic investment and output growth slowed. High price level, and the related "restriction" policy but also to some extent affected the consumer will lead to weak consumption growth. Economic slowdown, particularly in fixed asset investment growth slowed to directly inhibit the growth of coal demand.
Domestic coal price trend will depend more on power weakened the international coal price
Single from the domestic market, as coal production capacity will be gradually released, coal production will continue to maintain a certain level of growth, and accelerated by the economic structural adjustment, economic slowdown and other factors, coal demand growth may be slowdown. If the international price of coal can be based on the current run, then remained relatively stable, rising power and its own domestic coal shortage.
International coal price trend next year face great uncertainty, may continue to fall, may also rise, of course, there are likely to remain range-bound. If the debt crisis intensified, leading to a marked decline in the euro area real economy, and spread to the world's major economies, the international market demand for energy will inevitably decline, then, oil, coal and other energy prices will also be a correction. However, after 2008, the global financial crisis, countries will be more able to rescue together, so this assumption is relatively small probability of becoming reality. In contrast, the probability of international coal prices but larger. In order to provide sufficient market liquidity, the current major economies will continue with the loose monetary policy, part of the economy and even re-started quantitative easing, which energy prices to the international market of potential problems. In addition, the present, beginning in 2011 "Arab Spring" is far from over, following Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, the situation in Syria and Iran continues to heat up again in Iran as the world's major oil producing countries in the future if the result of The situation has undergone significant changes, resulting in crude oil supplies are affected, then, speculation in speculative funds, international oil prices will inevitably rise significantly. If a sharp rise in international oil prices, coal will inevitably be affected, the international coal prices will be transmitted to domestic import and export through the influence and stimulate domestic coal prices.
Therefore, the whole, just from the domestic market, rising coal prices next year, lack of motivation, domestic coal price trend or more depend on international coal price trend.