There are three sections on the history of investment in fertilizer logic: First, investment in agricultural production, seasonal logic, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, fertilizer and other species with the emergence of the growing season cycle has the opportunity to buy before the season, selling products in the peak season when prices ; Second, agricultural price cycle logic, that the trend of rising agricultural prices continuing to drive up agricultural prices; Third, the value of resource materials and supply shocks logic products as fertilizer near the upstream resources, goods, its value is often the upstream resource materials (potassium , phosphorus, coal, gas) embodiment, resource materials are also vulnerable to supply shocks.
 2012, as inflation fell and export tariff policy tightening, the first two appeared in 2012, the logic difficult than expected, while the value of resource products, the value of the potassium salt with the December short-term share prices will no longer sought after by the market ; value of phosphate rock has been fully recognized in 2011, 2012, the opportunity will come from there into the stocks on expectations; with gas prices start to change the pilot, research centers that supply shocks will occur urea industry market in 2011, domestic urea production capacity estimated at 6900-7000 tons, with gas accounting for 30% of urea production capacity to reach 20 million tons, mainly in the west, southwest and northeast. 2012 natural gas price reform is irreversible, according to estimates, if gas prices rise 0.4 yuan / cubic meters of gas from the southwest and northeast of the cash cost will be higher than coal urea urea, if the 0.6 yuan / cubic meter, most of the Southwest urea and northeast of the gas (about 10 million tons) costs will be higher than current prices, the region's coal-related enterprises will benefit from the urea market share and potential areas to improve prices. (Pei capacity)