1-10 months in 2011, China's chemical fertilizer industry investment grew 30%, the steady growth of industrial investment of nitrogen, phosphorus, potash continued to show a declining trend year on year, fertilizer, organic fertilizers and microbial fertilizer and other new fertilizer investment to maintain rapid growth. China's fertilizer production overall downward trend, in which nitrogen, phosphorus decreased more significantly, increased potassium, urea inventories mainly in the production chain. Since 2011, fertilizer prices are relatively high, the industry profit levels rebounded significantly.
2012 is expected to secure domestic fertilizer supply, the power, coal prices will increase the production cost pressures. In response to recent volatility in the price of fertilizer market, primary dealers have formed "are bought and sold" business model, which makes a large number of products piled up in the hands of manufacturers or large distributors, pending the arrival of fertilizer season, the concentration of primary dealers getting goods by rail capacity constraints in some areas may be short of supply and price volatility phenomenon.
Investment in the fertilizer industry grew by 30%, a substantial increase in investment growth in the new fertilizer
China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association data show that 10 months of 2011, China invested 100.69 billion yuan fertilizers, an increase of 25.5%. Which nitrogenous fertilizer industry investment grew 30.6%, investment fell 17.6% phosphate, potash investment fell 9.6%, an increase of 27.6% investment in fertilizer, organic fertilizers and microbial fertilizer investment grew 47.2%, other fertilizers investment grew 156.7% .
In recent years, changes in posture from investment perspective, investing in fertilizer industry continued to grow rapidly through 2008 and 2009, the significant decline in 2010, until April 2011 it began to rise; phosphate, potash has maintained an investment in a downward direction, but single On the level of investment point of view, signs of potash investment growth has occurred; fertilizer, organic fertilizers and microbial fertilizer, and other fertilizers to maintain high growth investment significantly.
It is noteworthy that, in nitrogen excess production capacity has been the case, China's nitrogen fertilizer investment is still maintained steady growth. China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association official said the new capacity more than nitrogen inputs from large environmental protection equipment, and was gradually to Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi coal producing concentrated situation. As the nitrogen fertilizer market downturn in recent years, some have been out of production. China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, according to recent statistics, the existing capacity of 6600 tons of urea, there are 5.25 million tons production capacity is not valid, although there are 5 million tons in 2011 planned new capacity into production, but the vast majority are delayed until 2012 or more on the list. As China's nitrogen fertilizer to promote industrial structure adjustment, the national inter-regional differences in nitrogen fertilizer production capacity is growing.
China's urea nitrogen and phosphorus production decreased mainly in the production chain inventory
China National Chemical Information Center data show that 10 months of 2011, China's output reached 53.1825 million tons of NPK fertilizer (pure amount), down 5.99%. Sub-varieties, fertilizer output reached 36.6746 million tons, down 6.27%, of which urea production 22,681,300 tons, down 1.53%; phosphate fertilizer production 12,865,300 tons, down 7.7%; potash production 3,665,100 tons, an increase of 4.57%. Figure 2: In recent years, the monthly output of NPK fertilizer in China (Unit: million tons of pure volume) Source: China National Chemical Information Center
Due to market downturn, May 1-5, 2011 continued low capacity utilization of nitrogen fertilizer business to run, urea year monthly decline; June the domestic market, and enthusiasm to improve production, production gradually increased; but the rate of business starts in October fell sharply again . China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association survey in mid-November, the national company operating at only 70% urea.
With the recent purchase Dongchu light storage business after another, the market situation improves, enthusiasm increased production, capacity utilization began to rise. From the inventory side, the first seven months of 2011 the production of urea business inventories decreased month by month, into an upward trend began in August, the end of October the national inventory of manufacturer 1.602 million tons of urea, 28.4% increase over last year. Association of Chinese agricultural distribution data show that as of November, domestic circulation of about 20.12 million tons of fertilizer stocks, up 5.59%. Among them, 6,651,300 tons of urea stocks, down 4.97%; DAP inventory 1.732 million tons, an increase of 8.8%. Comprehensive analysis, as urea market price fluctuations, especially primary dealers circulation to minimize inventory.
2011, the domestic fertilizer industry profits rebounded, recent domestic urea, DAP prices showed a rising trend
China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association data provided by the 1-September, the national fertilizer industry, 30.297 billion yuan total profit, an increase of 109.9%. Among them, nitrogen profit of 9.356 billion yuan, up 350.3 percent; phosphorus profit of 2.842 billion yuan, an increase of 115.9%; potash profit of 5.474 billion yuan, up 53.6%; compound profit of 9.232 billion yuan, up 61.6% . Xinhua News Agency analysis of economic analysts believe that a substantial increase in profitability is mainly due to price increases. Such as the 2011 urea, potassium chloride (60%) of the national average price of the factory was 2065 yuan / ton, 3050 yuan / ton, respectively, up 24.8%, 22.9%.
Since 2011, the domestic fertilizer market prices were rising trend during the year to reach the highest point in September, October, began to fall into the recent urea, diammonium phosphate ex-factory prices of different magnitudes occur, potassium chloride prices were relatively stable.
As of mid-November, Shandong province ex-factory price of urea dropped to 1950 yuan / ton, down in early October about 260 yuan / ton. As the southern parts of the fertilizer demand, coupled with price increases and some domestic distributors and purchase a small amount of fertilizer production enterprises, the market prices began to rebound, the present ex-factory in Shandong Province has risen to 2,100 yuan / ton. End of October, Yunnan, Hubei, one after another manufacturers lower prices to the station northeast of DAP 3100 yuan / ton, but the enthusiasm of dealers stocking is still not high, and then ex-factory price was slightly rising trend, as of now, Hubei, Yunnan, Guizhou and other places of production Enterprise Northeast arrival price has risen to 3300-3400 yuan / ton.
2012, the domestic fertilizer supply guaranteed, but the electricity, coal prices increased cost pressures; alert primary dealers "are bought and sold" to bring local supply
For spring 2012, the domestic fertilizer market supply and demand situation, although operating rates in some areas vulnerable to electricity, natural gas supply affected, but the overall nitrogen and phosphorus in excess capacity, and strict control of exports, it is expected during the spring market supply is guaranteed, prices will remain relatively high.
For potash supply, China Salt Industry Association potash (fertilizer) industry branch Deputy Secretary-General, said Zhao Ying Qi, 2011, 1.3551 million tons of domestic potash fertilizer carry-over stocks, the port carried 756,000 tons of potash imports, inventory circulation of about 504,000 tons, 2,615,100 tons total carryover stocks, representing growth of 71% over the same period last year. Calculated in accordance with domestic production capacity, annual production of 400 million tons 2012; expects full-year potash demand in 2012 will remain at 655 million tons in 2011. Judging from the basic domestic production plus imports to ensure supply of potash.
From the cost of production, the recent electricity, coal prices, the cost of urea production increased pressure. China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association survey of key fertilizer manufacturers learned, Shandong Province, nitrogenous fertilizer consumption rose 5.8 per kWh, the cost per ton of urea rose 65 yuan; Henan nitrogenous fertilizer consumption rose 4.29 points per kilowatt-hour, urea costs 45 yuan / ton; Shanxi nitrogenous fertilizer consumption per kilowatt-hour up 4-6 points, urea costs 50-70 yuan / ton.
October 2011, the National nitrogenous fertilizer raw coal (anthracite) of the average to the factory price 1474 yuan / ton, up 38.5% over last year. China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association official said that recent rumors of anthracite coal prices in 2012 will continue to rise, including smoke-free lump rose 100 yuan per tonne, smokeless coal, rose 60 yuan per ton.
Some areas of natural gas, electricity supply, may lead to decline in some areas. According to the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association survey in mid-December, when the Jincheng four nitrogenous fertilizer (urea, total production capacity 4.5 million tons / year) 45% of the average operating rate; Southwest natural gas supply cut-off due to a capacity of 13,700 tons / day ( about 450 tons / year), including Chongqing Jianfeng two units from the 800,000 tons of urea to the completion of more than a year now there has been no production.
Up to now, the domestic primary dealers, especially dealers still waiting to see a more serious mood. In recent years, volatility of market prices of fertilizer, making the primary dealers have formed "are bought and sold" business model, a large number of products piled up in the hands of manufacturers or large distributors, pending the arrival of fertilizer season, the primary focus on getting goods dealers, subject to rail capacity constraints in some areas may be short of supply and price volatility phenomenon. (Book Snow)