National Bureau of Statistics data show that January-February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell 5.2 percent, is the first negative growth since September 2009. The experts said in an interview with Shanghai Securities News reporter, the overall declining trend in corporate earnings in the second quarter may be difficult to change, but part of a cyclical industry is expected to rebound.
Vice president of China Development Strategy Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, economic researcher drama Kam Man, more and more economic data to improve the signal, the operating conditions expected in some sectors of the second quarter will be improved, structural investment opportunities in the future .
Four typical pro-cyclical industry, coal, chemicals, cement, steel, for example, there have been signs of rebound in corporate profits.
Among them, coal prices after early sharp decline after the current decline has slowed down, some species (such as Shanxi excellent mixed coal) even rose slightly. The market generally believed that coal prices will bottom out.
Look at the chemical industry. , Driven by rising crude oil prices, the prices of chlorine, nylon, rock phosphate, methyl ethyl ketone, methylene chloride, nitrate, MDI, urea and other chemical species is obvious. The price of oil is still an important benchmark of the observed chemical price changes, but more long-term rise still need to wait for demand to continue.
Meanwhile, cement prices generally rose. Monitoring of the Shanxi Securities, in early April, Tangshan, Hebei and Shanxi Datong price increase of 10-20 yuan / ton; Inner Mongolia Hohhot dominant firms led by 10 yuan / ton, most of the other companies will follow up.
Since this year, steel prices are almost the first to rebound in all important industrial species. As of April 10, the price of steel spot market varieties have different levels rise, affecting the price of steel demand from real estate and infrastructure investment, both appear to varying degrees warmer. With good weather, the downstream demand has increased, steel mills raised ex-factory price, market participants generally believe that steel prices still have a certain room to rise.
The experts believe that the main factors affecting the cycle industry is that the downstream demand, since March, as the weather improved, the project started in spring, the prices of the cycle industry is the period. "For this type of industry, if the cost did not change much, the stimulating effect of prices on profit is obvious."
But the drama Jin Wen pointed out that for many non-cyclical industries, labor costs, resources and environment of rising costs, is still an important factor restricting the profits to improve. For this type of industry, the second quarter of profitability can be difficult to significantly improved.
Gang Ming Yuan, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Economic Research, pessimistic expectations for the second quarter. He pointed out that in the real estate control policy to relax before the real estate investment will continue to have fallen sharply. Therefore, the price of coal, cement, steel and other downstream industries even be able to rebound, the space is very limited.
Prior to this, the person in charge of the Cement Association and the Coal Association already has expressed the concerns of the full-year demand. Wang Xianzheng, president of the China Coal Industry Association, the requirements of the coal enterprises of the second quarter to be highly concerned about the increase in coal production, the slowdown in demand growth and other market trends, proper regulation and control production according to market demand for coal supply and demand balance, to prevent big ups and downs of the market.
China Cement Association, vice president of Xiangzhong, general secretary made it clear that China's cement market is destined to face the test of demand growth fell in 2012.
Yuan Gangming that the two-quarter profitability of industrial enterprises will continue a quarter of a downward trend. Even the role of the positive factors of protection of housing construction, water conservancy investment can only change the rate of decline, but do not alter the downward direction. (Mu Rui)