Within two years the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia plans to export tariffs on coal and base metals increased by 50% and 25%, respectively, in 2012, increased by 25% in 2013. It is reported that the Indonesian government move to curb over-exploitation of mineral resources.
More than analysts pointed out that rely on imported Indonesian coal power plants will be a certain impact. With imported Indonesian coal lost the price advantage, in order to reduce the cost of power generation, some power plants may have to consider the coal imported from Africa or Australia, or the use of domestic coal instead, while speeding up the "going out" mergers of foreign mineral resources pace.
The rise of trade protectionism
Indonesia is the world's largest thermal coal exporter, the 2011 coal production and exports were 370 million tons and 312 million tons, and exports accounted for more than 80%. Indonesia is rich in coal resources, about 58 billion tons of coal reserves, has proven reserves of 19.3 billion tons, 5.4 billion tons of recoverable reserves for the commercial. The estimated total reserves of coal resources will reach more than 90 billion tons.
Indonesia is also China's largest coal importer. The data show that in 2011 China's total imports of coal to 182 million tons, an increase of 10.8 percent, Indonesia's thermal coal accounted for 35.6%. And Indonesian lignite, Indonesian coal will account for half of China's total coal imports. January to March this year, from Indonesia, China imported 64,696,400 tons of coal, 35.49% of total imports.
Seen in this light, Indonesia's coal export tariffs levied and raised, whether it is for the Indonesian mining companies, the impact of China's total imports of coal markets and coal market are quite a lot.
Analysts said the levy high tariffs of coal will seriously damage the profits of mining companies in Indonesia to combat them to expand production. Indonesia's industrial development is not perfect, the coal export initiative to stimulate economic growth, the implementation of the high tax burden will result in rapid economic decline. Expected that the implementation of the policy will be difficult.
Similarly, Australia has been controversial mineral resources rental tax bill, the object of the new tax income for the year earnings of $ 75 million and above, iron ore and coal mining enterprises, the interest rate for 30% of the profit. This will no doubt China's coal imports have an impact. Two coal export giant turns to mention the tax, because the two governments see increasing production and export of resources, energy and minerals corporate earnings continue to increase, the resources sector is exacerbated by the imbalance between the non-resource industries, in order to better promote their the healthy development of the domestic economy, the government is bound to gradually increase the taxation of resource products, a slice of market share. "coal analyst Lee Jeong-Commerce Circulation Productivity Promotion Center, told this reporter
Indonesian coal advantage Losing
"The news is not good news for China, which rely on imports of Indonesian coal." An Zhiyuan, Qinhuangdao seaborne coal market coal industry analyst, pointed out.
Industry insiders said an unnamed Indonesian coal is of poor quality, units of low calorific value, its real advantage is lower prices, price increases will substantially weaken the international competitiveness of the Indonesian coal. Coal analyst Liu Shanshan Zhuochuang pointed out that if the Indonesian thermal coal price increases, part of the power plant had to consider the coal imported from Australia, South Africa, Russia and other countries, or selection of domestic coal.
The industry believes that the imported coal is mainly concentrated in the southeast coast of northern China coal subject to capacity bottlenecks, it is difficult to achieve transport. Ministry of Railways said that the 2015 will solve the coal railway transportation capacity shortage, when the coal from north to south path will be smoother. Domestic coal overcapacity, transport to fill the demand in the southern coastal areas. Indonesia reduced coal imports will become inevitable.
At the same time, in recent years, foreign large-scale coal enterprises to accelerate the pace of consolidation and reorganization, moderate experience can learn from China's coal enterprises should increase coal imports. Coal "12 Five-Year Plan also encourages the strong enterprises" going out "to obtain resources and develop new markets.
The industry believes that, whether short or long term, the policy on the domestic coal market is not large, does not cause domestic coal price fluctuations.
However, in the long run, imports of coal prices will be the trend can not be changed. Recently, Wood the McCann Qi energy consulting firm released a report, the 2030 Chinese total coal imports may surge to 10 million tons. Chairman Lee said this, "As China's imports of coal continued to increase in the stimulation of demand for imports of the country's resources, international market coal prices will rise, the cost of imports will be rising." (Yang Qian)