Urea market is not short off
Spring after the fertilizer, the market is expected urea prices will be a certain level of adjustment, whether dealers or fertilizer production enterprises are highly anticipated, since April, urea prices not fall up instead, the market is not short off, so that distribution providers and fertilizer production enterprises are entangled.
At present, the dealer's hands are basically not in stock, the face of the summer season approaches fat compound fertilizer production enterprises he tried to purchase raw materials for production, but the price of urea in the export set in Hong Kong, driven by rising. "At present, the Yantai region urea successively set in Hong Kong, although the granular urea ex-factory price has reached 2300 yuan / ton, but the supply is still tight, still can not get the goods really do not understand." Yantai public Tak Holdings Limited vice president manager Yan Tao reluctantly told reporters.
Zhao Chaoyang, Anyang City, Henan Province, in northern Henan agricultural production limited liability company, said: "At present, the northern regions of the spring wheat, fertilizer has ended, the urea is also basic to buy empty, the time to take in early April, the price of urea callback goods, but now the price has been rising urea prices do not fall down, and also into the point goods, mainly because local in June will usher in maize using fertilizer of the hands of no goods
Similarly, Zibo, Shandong, the public benefit of agricultural production chain, general manager of the cycle also told reporters: "Although this year's high price of urea, the peak season prices firm, so the sales are still relatively large, the overall sales of about 6000-7000 tons of cargo nearly 1,000 tons more than last year, currently only 200 tons of surplus goods originally planned to April prices fall will replenishment, but the price continued to run high, and now can only wait and see based.
Demand overlay lead to higher prices
Learned in an interview with reporters, urea prices continued to rise in the near future, widely believed to be the pull of the export set in Hong Kong and the season postponed lead.
Frequency believe that the big manufacturers operating rates remain high, but due to cost pressures, more enterprises have ceased production, therefore, the overall yield decreased over the same period last year, coupled with some recent large enterprises have received a set in Hong Kong orders, so leading to rise in urea prices in the off-season. But he also believes that the current market is not short off phenomenon may also be the presence of market speculation. "Although the current international price of urea rose from the export of more than two months time, when the international market is not to say."
Yan Tao, analysts believe that the reason why the price of urea does not appear in April, the expected decline but the reasons for the rise in export set in Hong Kong pull on the one hand, on the other hand because of the early domestic northern low temperatures lead to postpone the season, although The season has ended, but some areas are still in the fertilizer, so the timing of the price correction may be postponed.
Sales Manager of Huaneng Power Chemical Corporation fertilizer Ye Guoqing, the off-season urea price rise was mainly set in Hong Kong and fertilizer manufacturers demand overlay result. He said: "after the spring fertilizer market, fertilizer manufacturers had expected urea prices fell, wanted to talk about the export set in Hong Kong orders to pull urea prices rise, fertilizer manufacturers of high-nitrogen fertilizer production soon, but passively getting goods."
Market adjustment or shock
The urea market in the off-season short so that the dealer is very tangled, the face of the market outlook, the current market outlook downward trend in prices is unlikely that the market adjustment will be completed in shock.
Cycle, said: "At present, the retailer or wait and see, after the end of the spring selling season, retailers in the supply of small, but should wait and see." He believes that the recent price rise driven by exports , but the seasonal adjustment will appear, is expected in late April to early May, but the adjustment would not be significant only in shock, smooth fine-tuning.
Yan Tao also believes that the price of urea appears to the adjustment, but postponed due to the spring fertilizer season, fertilizer in the summer will come soon, so the market adjustment in shock, due to limited inventory of raw materials of compound fertilizer enterprises, large granular urea at 4 month price reduction is unlikely.
Zhao Chaoyang believes that the price drop is unlikely, on the one hand, while the operating rate is relatively normal, spring fertilizer season is over, but companies do not pressure on the stock, but also have shipped to Guangdong, Guangxi and Yantai The summer of fertilizer will soon come, the hands of dealers supply volume is not large, the arrival price 2300 yuan / ton, operational risk.
Ye Guoqing said: "after the original budget of fertilizer in the spring, the price volatility in 2150-2300 yuan / ton, from now on the market, even if the adjustment, urea prices fell below 2200 yuan / ton is unlikely, fluctuations will range between 2200-2350 yuan / ton, the current international market price of urea rose, resulting in domestic set in Hong Kong caused by short-term market demand, the short term, prices will still be a steady rise, but if the price is too high, then, will certainly correction at the same time, he stressed, the urea market is not short off the case will increase next season market risk, the difficulty of the operation of the urea market will increase in July. (Zhang Tech)