One, the price trend

According to price monitoring, 24 days 5500 kcal of coal at 525 yuan / ton, yesterday fell 1 yuan / ton, nearly four months since the first decline compared with the previous year, steam coal has been down in advance the date. The mainstream of calorific value of 5500 kcal / kg of steam coal in Qinhuangdao port, Huanghua port, Tianjin port, Caofeidian, SDIC Jingtang Port and port price closed at respectively: 520-530 yuan / ton, 520-530 yuan / ton, 520-530 yuan / ton, 515-525 yuan / ton, 515-525 yuan / ton, 500-510 yuan / ton.

Analysis of two, influencing factors

Products: with good policy digest completely a series of demand data, already showed the side not good coal market, a number of price index can reflect the market into a slightly warmer after the stalemate stage. But in order to coal annual negotiations, coal prices very price will strongly, and downstream users of the collective boycott, according to year-end coal signed long co contract the two sides continue running out of time. In December 24th, Bohai sea power coal price index closed at 525 yuan / ton, more than in the previous reporting period fell by 1 yuan / ton, the chain fell 0.19%, drop compared to the same period 17%.

Industry chain downstream power coal consumption this year: poor weather warmer heating to reduce the amount of industrial coal electricity no bigger and enhancing the overall amount of coal fire power consumption in 2013 compared with a larger gap, a lot of good is still unable to change the present situation of coal production capacity surplus and consumption structure of end of weakening demand. Since the main coastal power plant recently total consumption of coal this winter for the first time exceeded 700000 tons of coal inventory down to 13100000 tons coal available days to 18.6 days.

As of December 21st, four central Bohai port coal inventory are: Qinhuangdao port 7220000 tons, SDIC Caofeidian port 7050000 tons, 5900000 tons of Jingtang Port, Tianjin Port 2280000 tons. In addition to Jingtang Port area coal inventory increase, the remaining three port coal inventory was reduced, but were at a high level, inventory pressure forced the coal enterprises to give up bidding.

Industry: in order to promote the export to resolve the problem of excess production capacity in China coal high, the Ministry of Finance recently decided, from January 1, 2015 onwards, will be appropriate to reduce the coal export tariff rate to 3%. But China's coal in the international market is still a lack of competitive advantage, to 5500 kcal of coal, China's coal in the export tax rebate after the price is about 450 yuan / ton, plus Shanghai freight 30 yuan / ton, shipped to Japan for the price of 480 yuan / ton, while the same product from Australia to Japan the price is only 440 yuan / ton. Therefore, for the export of coal, reduce the strength of export tariffs should also increase, even can implement zero tariff.

Macro: economic growth depends on energy consumption is difficult to reduce the average 2000~2013 years, China's energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.73, that is to say, 1 percentage point of growth of GDP, the energy consumption needs to increase 0.73 percentage points. In order to control the excessive growth in energy consumption, since the "eleven five" plan of China's energy consumption per unit of GDP into the binding targets, "Twelfth Five Year Plan" and the introduction of the total energy consumption of the control measures, the requirements of the country's total energy consumption control in 2015 40 tons of standard coal.

Three, conclusion and Prospect

Analysts believe that Cheng Hao, at present the coal the two sides for the year-end long co contract signed price running continues, but the focus of the national power, downstream to the coastal power plant, port of transshipment, downstream coal storage base coal are in high demand for the downstream industry downturn, the other, in addition to import coal pressure still exists huge pressure, coal prices, coal and power from this into the downlink channel, the possibility of at least in the short term rise again almost 0. (Ling Xuan)