Brent crude oil prices from 2014 June all-time high of $115 a barrel in January 23rd, fell to $49 a barrel, fall 57%. In the CRU analysis of all commodities, fertilizer market is global and regional energy market changes in the most significant.

CRU argues that the fall in oil prices will not produce deflation too much influence on nitrogen fertilizer prices, because the main raw material of nitrogen fertilizer production is not oil, in China is coal, natural gas is in other place.

The price of nitrogen fertilizer (urea, ammonia, ammonium nitrate, sulphate and UAN) in the post Cold War era was identified with the crude oil and natural gas prices linked. However, many mature economies, this relationship breaks down, the past ten years, China became the world's largest urea exporter, fertilizer price is not with crude oil prices.

Although the recent decline in oil prices is unlikely to affect the fertilizer prices in the near future, it will certainly affect the nitrogen supply market. Effect of oil price still have a certain impact on natural gas prices in Europe, directly affect the sales contract, in Eastern Europe to Russia's natural gas "take or pay", also the influence of natural gas in Western Europe in the spot market.

Will certainly reduce the fertilizer manufacturers such as OCIFertiberia Grupo Azoty and Yara borealis in ammonia, urea and nitrate production costs in Europe to lower the price of natural gas.

As the market prices are set on the coal based China unlikely because of falling oil prices and the decline of European manufacturers, the profit is likely to increase in 2015, this also applies to other areas in the price of natural gas from the oil market such as Brazil and parts of North america.

For sulfur, with crude oil as raw material of sulfur is not in a ring of crude oil supply, but the effect of crude oil refining efficiency.

Extraction rate of sulfur in recent months has remained stable so sulfur can supply continuously, low oil prices have begun to put pressure to American shale oil production, but the Canadian oil sands due to the previous investment, expected 2015 production will increase.

But now the low oil prices so that the oil giant announced a cut in the investment budget. But these cuts will only affect investment may 2020 after the operation of the project, but does not lead to significantly reduce the supply of crude oil.

The same applies to the sulfur supply. Sulfur production in the short term is unlikely to fall because of extraction rate of sulfur stable. But refined project investment decision in the present have canceled or delayed risk.

CRU thinks that the sulphur market medium-term outlook is still excess market, potential excess is relatively transient, and then returned to a state of balance of 10 years ago, and with the increase of low oil prices.