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From the Spring Festival has been less than a month, the whole shipment of compound fertilizer from the previous month to turn pale. Dachang go goods is pre orders, and the new single transaction is not ideal, the operating rate decreased, inventories rise; and a number of small enterprises in the production of basic, later to resume production will be in after the Lantern festival. Nearly a month of compound fertilizer offer is more stable, only some small factory price is flexible. With the basic market started late, the compound fertilizer market should be optimistic, but at present the Dealer Stocking although the amount is not uniform, some more and some less, some play money but not delivered, but after all have some stock, so the weaker late compound fertilizer upward, while the Railway Tariff rise news came, so that manufacturers of late the market is a little more confidence, and add a concern.
This stems partly from a message for a long time ago, said USA road to the railway parity relationship is 2.75 times, and Chinese is currently 5 times, so, the nominal price China railway is still 40% of the price space. In 2014, it was widely expected railway freight rate will rise 3 points, but in the end only rose 1.5 points, then guess the rest of the 1.5 points in 2015 will continue to adjust. Therefore, this year to previous years often love price points in time, market and set off the storm. There are rumors: "fertilizer railway freight in 2 early to rise, 2 freight into No. 4 freight, still do not impose the railway construction fund, 1000 km per ton rose 21 yuan." This is the message we first did not say whether it can execute, take a look at the impact of its execution if the word of the compound fertilizer.
At present, the manufacturers for compound fertilizer transport generally use three kinds of mode of transport: fire trucks and transport, sea transport. We through two regional transport and motor compared with fire.
Area of Deyang - Linyi Henan - Liaoning
Fire operation (not including the handling fee) 220120
Qiyun 250180
Intermodal advantages:
1, the transportation time is significantly less than the fire operation time;
2, can be directly sent to the customer warehouse;
The motor has the advantages of:
1, from the factory directly to each other the pull of curry, and often have low return vehicle.
2, generally will not cause damage to the product;
3, crude oil prices fell, the price of gasoline is also on the decline, reduce the cost of automobile transportation;
Fire SPLM disadvantages: 1, need under the platform handling fee;
2, in the transport process is easy to cause the product bag breaking phenomenon;
At present, most manufacturers have gradually turned to fire transport transport or sea transport mode, if the railway tariff increases, the main affect Xinjiang, Sichuan some remote areas, because these areas by geographical constraints, only to accidentally shipped, if the rate rises, the area of the product is likely to be price; and for close or motor, intermodal transportation convenient area will have little impact.
Look at the winter preparation now. In recent years by the market downturn, the overall stock often downstream enthusiasm is poor. But because the compound fertilizer enterprises have been actively adjust the winter storage appropriate sales strategy, the price low, and introduced a series of preferential policies continuously, some manufacturers have to do direct sales, so it seems, the amount of stock downstream has in fact can not be ignored.
Overall, the railway freight if rising, it affects only to the northwest, southwest and Heilongjiang and some other modes of transport is limited or haul distance is far in the area, and the Central Plains and coastal areas subject to the little impact, even by freight support compound fertilizer price to uplink, space should be only in the 40-60 yuan / tons.
Attached: about 2006-2014 railway freight rate statistics:
Adjust the time the new tariff rate (yuan / ton) increase
0.0498 - 2006.04.10
2007.11.05 0.0518 4.02%
2008.07.01 0.0548 5.79%
2009.12.13 0.0706 28.83%
2011.04.01 0.0726 2.83%
2012.05.20 0.0826 13.77%
2013.02.20 0.0976 18.16%
2014.02.15 0.1130 15.78% (Yang Lin)
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