In 2014 the urea market can be said to spend in the doldrums, although demand is no big change, but the lack of market confidence, bearish psychological serious, dealers eager to sell inventory also exacerbated the market decline trend, enterprises in the loss year hard. In the coming 2015, we will continue to adjust the urea industry is defined as the year.
The first: commodities remain concussion bottom
In the promotion of international oil prices slumped, tracking 22 kinds of material Bloomberg commodity index fell to the lowest since May 2009 has recently. This decline in commodity speculation, this year will fall to fourth consecutive years ended, and create since at least 1991 longest losing streak period. For the reason, the global economic slowdown and the strong dollar is "arch-criminal", but also to blame America shale gas revolution burst factor. Outlook 2015, the market generally expected that commodity prices will also remain weak. Analytic personage thinks, commodity futures fell sharply space is smaller, but still will shock bottom.
Second: Chinese urea production entered a stable period
From the production, urea industry appeared new production capacity and eliminate productivity coexists. If the reform of natural gas prices, natural gas urea manufacturers will have a serious impact, is expected to start rate will continue to fall. Although nitrogen from the examination and approval system to record system, but because the urea low market prices, profit is difficult, the future will not be explosive growth in urea production capacity, output will remain stable. In addition, the effects of urea production was also influenced by the related products. Many enterprises adjust the urea production through technical transformation, to achieve the maximization of corporate profits, although overcapacity but the actual output is not expected to be released in full.
Third: China urea demand short-term peaked
The fertilizer application of agriculture, recently, the Ministry of agriculture in 2020 proposed to make the soil testing and application techniques of coverage is more than 90%, fertilizer utilization rate increased to more than 40%, the total amount of fertilizer used to achieve zero growth. With the formula fertilization by soil testing technology vigorously implement, unit of land is expected to reduce the amount of urea, fertilizer will be more reasonable. Industrial use of fertilizer, in 2015 the real estate investment growth will drop to 8%, the real estate market downturn will direct drag to sheet metal industry, this is expected industrial urea amount will be reduced, in addition with the implementation of national standards for the discharge of four urea, vehicle market demand will increase further, so the expected 2015 industrial urea content will not be have too big change.
Fourth: China urea exports become the norm
In 2015 the urea export policy has significantly positive. A switch to a year-round by 80 yuan uniform tariff levied off-season, although tariffs increased, but the season tariffs dropped substantially, the reduction in 150 yuan of above, the annual average down, tariffs reduced obviously. To cancel the season tariff, enterprises can according to market conditions to free choice of export, enhance the initiative. But the tariff good does not mean that the export volume increased, mainly international urea production capacity is also increasing, the fierce market competition. In addition, lead to China surplus situation international dealers still will suppress the Chinese urea prices, if Urea Export scattered situation is not effectively controlled, in 2015 the export market will be more difficult to grasp.
Fifth: not too much devaluation of RMB
The current Chinese government in trying to promote the process of RMB internationalization, in China government has the initiative of the RMB exchange rate situation, no matter how the future market situation changes, the estimated probability of RMB devaluation is not too high. RMB exchange rate is more likely in the range of fluctuation appreciation or depreciation (3% upper and lower amplitude), the equilibrium exchange rate and thus gradually forming recognition in the international market of rmb.