The author is firm urea "long", but in view of the previous two years of lessons, and the prices of oil and agricultural products plummeted, in Urea Export related tax favorable circumstances, are reluctant to sing. But be sure, in 2015 the bearish urea, there must be a mistake.
As the preliminary analysis, cycle period of coal prices decline earlier than oil and gas, which makes Chinese urea produced within short-term relative competitiveness, this opportunity fleeting, we should make full use of the time difference, export as much, while the maximum extent from the domestic transfer of stock. On the other hand, the author hopes that the price of urea can be maintained at a relatively low level, which is conducive to inhibit the release of production capacity, shutting down after all, some domestic enterprises did not collapse, as long as the price is right, can resume production at any time; on the other hand, if this urea season again go down in price, then there is absolutely no one to light reservoir, so the urea industry must have a surge high and sweep forward market to boost confidence in the market.
From the volume of exports, from last November to January this year, exports of urea reached 5650000 tons, higher than the same period last year 3300000 tons. Although February export data did not come out, but considering the India January bidding, can export volume in February to determine China urea will continue to stride forward singing militant songs. The recent international urea prices continue to decline, the small particle FOB the price fell to below $290 / ton (before February are maintained at 300 dollars / ton level), while the domestic urea did not fall but rise, according to the current ex factory price projections, the domestic small FOB particles near $300 / ton. Finally, illustrates the drop in oil prices has been transmitted to the natural gas, after April, Chinese coal urea cost advantage may further loss (the author has done a preliminary analysis, the northern hemisphere is the heating season has passed, natural gas demand in the end of season; two are Ukraine and Russia new natural gas contract prices will the big drop); on the other hand shows us a good use of this time difference as much as possible to export urea.
From the output, maintain a slight increase in the same period of the situation, but the industry's overall operating rate to maintain the basic level of production in the early resumption of work, not many enterprises. The reason of these enterprises is not complex to nothing more than two: not a strong signal, market price; two, prices have yet to reach the breakeven point of these enterprises. The time has arrived in March, even if the early shut down businesses really complex, the supply of 500000 tons per month (equivalent to measuring increased in accordance with the annual production capacity of 6000000 tons, in fact, impossible to have such a large capacity production), also need 6 months to fill 3300000 tons year-on-year exports increased.
As for the trend of domestic prices, I believe that everyone is clear, has been firmly to!
On the basis of the above analysis, now a question and answer a lot of people: the collapse in oil prices once completely transmitted to the natural gas, Chinese urea cost the highest in the world, so Chinese will become urea importer, so the domestic price of urea to fight? The author thinks that this assumption doesn't hold water, at least within one year, even if the international urea costs low, Chinese will still maintain a certain amount of export. A large number of export pre has cleared the domestic inventories, now can throw it away to export this crutch, achieve domestic demand driven. North and south of the country agricultural fertilizer urea has no time approaching, the supply gap, very soon! (Yu Lei)