Recently the price of urea local callback, the bears again to victory, but unfortunately, if urea market also exist if speculation, the author will take half a month or even a month price trend as the starting point of analysis, but go to all lengths to grasp a seasonal trend. As the stock market, we can't buy every day in the lowest, highest sell. If the season fertilizer used as our object of observation, the author is still strong bull!
Analysis the author wrote several years of urea, scolded many, also summarized a little experience. Short the minimum risk: one is in recent years the urea business compensate earn less bullish, in line with public opinion; the two is the price always fluctuates, as long as the short-term downward, will be considered as bearish cash; three is the worst consequences caused by the bearish on readers is not money, but also not to lose. And see a little Dan cannot cash, will result in a loss to the dealers, have caused resentment. Even if the bullish predictions with cash, the authors have what relation? Therefore, in writing the bullish article, the author will have to be very careful, do a lot of homework.
A number of reasons early days had confessed, here no longer. Frankly speaking, the international urea prices lower than the domestic present the phenomenon of the author already prepared, also issued a "Chinese fertilizer export to defend the war started" article. By the time difference, in China before the end of 2 to achieve the most substantial exports, so naturally put forward "in the first half of this year the domestic urea will be in a tight state of equilibrium, we can throw the stick point of export".
Export this cane let us thinking produces serious malformation: since the second half of last year to February this year, the international urea market price is always higher than that of the domestic market of $20 (ton price, the same below) but no one dares to do much more than that, and even once a short phenomenon, results the domestic price up; now is the international lower than the domestic, dealer appears more panic.
The pre - and the British CRU friends about a question: if the late cause China's urea completely unable to export because of price, how will the international urea market? He said, that means nothing. Because even in the implementation of the pale busy season tariff situation, China's urea season also exports, not to mention the immediate spread? His words make the eyes bright: early in the international price is always higher than the domestic time, other countries of the urea production and sales did not stop, that is to say, although the domestic higher than international, but China's export quantity reduce, rather than return to zero.
To return to India. Last week I predict, India may be a new round of bidding, at the end of 3 to early 4 weekend, foreign media appeared similar reports, dismissed India urea imports will be substantially reduced the worry, also shows that no white to do homework. India since each bidding last year has greatly boosted domestic prices, I believe this will be no exception.
Here, the author recalls the 2011 thing: in mid March, the domestic urea market also fell a sound, northeast a minimum price of $1850, but by late March, the market suddenly reversed, later appeared even 2500 yuan high price, short urea losses. This year the regional market to appear earlier positive signals, Liaoning agricultural needs to start, the arrival of scarce, prices are strong; Sichuan, Chongqing farmers need to start, the factory shipment without pressure, strong price. Though is likely to make a point to an area of error, but the author believe that urea is going through the darkness before dawn, in late March or the first half of the year will become a turning point year urea.