May 9 years India ended the third round of bidding urea, IPL company received 3.2 million tons plus an optional amount bid 500,000 tons, the lowest CIF $ 296 (t price, the same below). According to preliminary statistics, the proposal is less than $ 300, CIF supply intention to reach 585,000 tons.

For Chinese urea exports, 296 to 300 dollars CIF India, remove 9 to $ 10 sea freight, FOB price of only $ 286 to 290, set in Hong Kong the price of domestic enterprises accounted for only 1600 to 1620 yuan.

Due to the lack of bids advantage, the international market share of Chinese urea was cut trend. International traders in the tender on May 9 in order FOB China as the benchmark, and to provide less than China and higher than the international mainstream quotations sources. India round of bidding to become the international urea market supply capacity of the "litmus test" - the total amount bid more than 3 million tons.

The industry began to sigh Chinese urea exports has been difficult to achieve a single large. With Indonesia's Kaltim Company 500,000 tons, 1.2 million tons Saudi Arabia, Algeria and other new total capacity of 2.4 million tons of urea plant production, market supply and demand pattern of international influence intensifies, Chinese urea exports will be increasing pressure.

Domestic prices have a sense of fatigue India from early April release urea tender, the domestic fertilizer preferential tariff adjustments, and then again in early May, India round of bidding, the domestic urea prices recently received a lot of positive support, urea prices rose after the round had a chance to bottoms, began a new round of price increases. Many expressed concern that downstream manufacturers on the market, even those tempted to chase the dealers are mostly purchased with on pin; that is stimulating prices began to purchase raw materials also demand a basic fertilizer companies with mining. It can be seen, limited confidence in the industry on the domestic urea market outlook. Especially early May, bidding manufacturers hype India, the market has more or less showed resistance. With the tender results were announced, the domestic price momentum has a sense of fatigue. Unless India can digest Hong Kong Chinese round of bidding deposit, otherwise domestic inevitable decline in value.

India Sourcing India it is not clear, although the total amount bid round of over 3 million tons, India's bid We once again been the industry questioned. In 2014 India's urea supply and demand analysis, the total demand of about 31 million tons, production capacity of about 23 million tons, the import requirement of about 800 million tons. But the second half of last year, international oil prices continued downturn makes India urea oil companies have been re-production, enhance self-sufficiency. Rumors that India's urea import demand in 2015 is expected to be reduced by half. In other words, India is possible in the first bidding round of false plan purchases, traders stimulate more competitive bidding, but in reality only "sweep" speculation cheap goods.

I believe that if the scalar overwhelmed India about 80 million tons, which can be considered fertilizer season is not out of India, so the late Chinese urea exports will be bearish. Once the loss of export support, domestic surplus is expected to emerge will be followed, it is possible to prematurely urea into the "auction mode", the domestic price of urea in late May is expected to return 1,550 yuan or less. However, if the Indian tender up to 1.2 million to 1.5 million tons, it means that India does exist just, China still can rely on the export balance the domestic market, most manufacturers will offer both at the same time strong set in Hong Kong. By then, the domestic factory price of urea is expected to hold the 1600 to 1650 yuan.