The author has analyzed preliminary year, the trend of the domestic regional urea with international and national overall trend is not associated, more fertilizer and regional markets time-dependent, reflecting regional wheeled characteristics. This conclusion has been verified again recently, last weekend, Anhui, Shandong and other places of urea prices began to rise, a rate of 30 yuan / ton, while the price of urea in Northeast China began falling significantly. With the arrival of fertilizer, it is expected to reach 100 yuan / ton price rebound with fat area, but it should be difficult over the duration of two weeks. With the end of July of fertilizer, the country's urea prices hard to be optimistic, which is determined by the following factors:
First, the new capacity will gradually release. The second half of international, domestic urea market will increase more than 2 million tons of production capacity, it is bound to increase domestic supply, curb exports.
Secondly, reserves declining willingness to distribution channels. Urea market in the first half of this year, when the overall performance with the price, not the price of the characteristics of the time, which shows the distribution channels basically lost reserve capacity, load shifting role did not play. I believe that this short term trend is irreversible: one year after primary dealers do earn less pay more urea, urea, "no law at all" (Dealer language) so that they completely lost the confidence of the urea market and grasp ability to run away from urea, as they enter sales will become the new norm of primary dealers, while the traditional urea large distribution company operating mainly in the urea business in recent years, did not suffer less, they also continue to reduce operating proportion of urea, unanimously chose the final form of the market: no stock of urea distribution companies; the second is to promote high-nitrogen fertilizer distributor, disposable fertilization, the primary distribution channels continue to go to the urea-based, get rid of the urea in the forward direction-dependent, primary dealers urea less and less, will inevitably bring about overall initiative to reduce the reserve.
Once again, exports face greater pressure. China dominated the first half of this year, although global urea prices, but there are three things to our attention. First, the international market has a strong fear of Chinese urea export capacity, the pricing has changed following the price from leading prices, coupled with cost advantages abroad, which is bound for China's urea export inhibitory, looking like last year is no longer large-scale exports possible. Second, India is not a quantitative tender will increasingly reflect fueled difficult, sell and easy features. India in April this year, in May and June have carried out a tender, always adhere to the lowest bid, the policy of price priority. I have a feeling that in the case of a unified China's annual export tariffs, India will no longer concerned about how much the level of each auction price and quantity, but rather strictly adhere to the principle of a single tender the lowest bid, the procurement by the number of deficiencies Frequent tender to compensate. Once the market is not good, there will be short bidding situation, accelerate the decline in prices, the market is good, purchases decreased stimulating effect on the market, of course not obvious, so India's bid to become the market in the future more short power. Third, the domestic situation. Export mighty force bound to cause stampede, is not to repeat.
8 to 10 months, in addition to Anhui, Jiangsu and Henan in some areas, the amount of direct agricultural urea and other areas are very small. During the insufficient domestic demand, in the case of loss of channel storage capacity, the export market is bound to be short, so as to further guide the domestic market prices down. Recent domestic regional price will rebound, dealers can purchase their own regional markets according to the season, seize this round of rebound, and before the end of fertilizer, clear all the stock.