Guests point of view: Autumn market does not appear big changes, because this year's export policy is the release of all, increasingly high degree of marketization of the fertilizer industry, competition in the market more fully, in all of the power game, market to a smooth transition.
Reporter: in recent years, Hefei difficult has become the mantra of industry practitioners, but the reporter in the interview, deputy general manager of Hebei Province agricultural means of production Co., Ltd. Ren Hai. He has expressed a different view. He believes that, compared with previous years, this year the fertilizer market ushered in a good year. The good times where? And whether it can continue?
Fat city overall stable
"I mean a good harvest is not to say that fertilizer prices, but said fertilizer supply, sales are relatively stable, there is no big ups and downs, fat city is relatively stable is a good harvest." Ren Hai said. Today, agricultural circulation enterprises to firmly Dangdang earning points "service fee" is not easy, so practitioners of good harvest expected value decreased as well. However, the market trend is stable is conducive to the development of the industry, that is not too good year. According to Ren Hai introduced from the spring to now, all kinds of fertilizers are in a relatively stable state, during the period, although urea has been rising, but the duration is very short. Generally speaking, the market fluctuation is not obvious, the production, circulation enterprise management risk is reduced. According to the characteristics of the first half of the fat city, Ren Hai believes that this year the market will continue to remain stable trend.
Ren Hai told reporters: "autumn market does not appear big changes, because of this year's export policy fully liberalized, increasingly high degree of marketization of the fertilizer industry, competition in the market more fully, in the game of various forces, market to a smooth transition. From the supply side, the relative balance of supply and demand in the fall of this year. On the one hand, China's fertilizer production capacity larger and would not appear in short supply situation; on the other hand, export after the release, companies arrange space larger, have no necessary to stare at a time to focus on delivery, so autumn market nor suppliers price hit each other. Therefore, "I think the production enterprises will be more rational attitude towards the market competition, the supply and marketing of the autumn market will be a relatively stable situation."
The pattern of fertilizer in the autumn will continue to develop in the direction of diversification, compound fertilizer, the amount of functional fertilizers will be more and more, the market share will become more and more big. But must pay attention to a difficult problem, is the impact of fake and shoddy products. "Now of fertilizer varieties to the diversified development, an endless stream of new types of fertilizer, this to do bad businesses of fake and shoddy products provide more opportunities, this phenomenon in a certain extent will affect the fertilizer market price movements, but not about the overall situation." He said.
Diammonium or local fluctuations
At present, diammonium enterprises export continues, sufficient orders, so the exit would affect the northern autumn market? The answer is No. He said: "DAP production enterprises of the high degree of concentration, Yuntianhua Kaiyang Phosphate Mine, and other large enterprises to treat the attitude of the market is more rational, they will not for export and easily lose the domestic market. Take Hebei Province, we have a fall of the purchase plan has been formulated, basically and the production of the company finalized the purchase amount. From the Hebei provincial agricultural company perspective, the supply will not be a problem in diammonium. Diammonium supply in Hebei province's agricultural market share accounted for 70%-80%. Therefore, agricultural companies can ensure the stable supply, stable prices fall."
Although the stability is a big trend, but the market's local fluctuations may still occur. "In the autumn, only the northern provinces of diammonium, after entering a long period of reserve. Once the sale of some small autumn, the dealer may not retreat, the market fears of some more concentrated ingredients. In order to return the funds, reduce the loss, these dealers are likely to hit the price in late period, rejection, and therefore does not rule out the late fall will appear price fluctuations." But Ren Hai thinks at the same time, the small dealers in the hands of diammonium inventory is very limited, as long as the flow of trade can secures the position and the late rejection of goods on the market impact is temporary and partial.
In view of the current situation, Ren Hai said: "now the total plate is, the total amount of all kinds of fertilizers, the market is not standardized factors still, but the market is more and more rational ingredients." Therefore, with the increase of fertilizer production, large enterprises also on the rise, market operation mode of fertilizer enterprises will gradually to regulate, rational development, Hefei will be more healthy and catastrophic market risk is reduced.