August, oil and chemical industry economic operation to maintain the basic stability. From 1 to August, the whole industry increased by 8.9%, the main revenue fell by 5.3%, the total profit fell by 25.7%, fixed asset investment growth rate of 0.8%, total exports fell by 6.7%. Market supply and demand remained stable, the demand has accelerated, the industry continues to rebound in efficiency. However, the current industry price decline, investment growth is weak, exports continued to decline, the economy is still relatively large downward pressure.
One, increasing the value of the growth rate is fast
Chemical industry, chemical fertilizer and coating (Yan) manufacturing industry growth leader. From 1 to August, fertilizer manufacturing owners camp revenue increased by 11.6%, to maintain the first; pesticide manufacturing industry 5.9%, continue to rank third. In addition, basic chemical raw materials manufacturing main revenue growth of 1%, compared with the previous July to accelerate 0.1 percentage points; the special chemical manufacturing growth of 4.9%, accelerating 0.8 percentage points.
Two, fertilizer increased significantly
August, the national fertilizer production (fold pure, the same below) 7120000 tons, an increase of 18.3%, a new high. Among them, urea production 3108000 tons, an increase of 1992000; 16.7% tons of phosphate fertilizer production, an increase of 27.8%; potash fertilizer production 517000 tons, an increase of 5035000; synthetic ammonia production 1.7% tons, an increase of 8.8%. That same month, pesticide production (100% fold) 300000 tons, an increase of 1.6%. Among them, the herbicide output 139000 tons, a decline of 6.3%. Agricultural film production 197000 tons, up 13.2%.
Three, investment continued to decline
Chemical industry, Tu (Yan) manufacturing industry to maintain rapid growth, chemical fertilizer growth has accelerated, other industries slowed down or down. From 1 to August, the fertilizer industry growth rate of 7.1%, up 1.6 percentage points over the previous July, basic chemical raw materials manufacturing investment growth of 2.3%, slowing 3 percentage points; the special chemical manufacturing increased by 7.4%, down 2.8 percentage points.
Four, the decline in exports continue to expand
Customs data show that in August, the first decline in the amount of chemical fertilizer exports. That same month, chemical fertilizer exports 2682000 tons (in kind, the same below), down 13.5%; total exports of $860000000, down 12.5%, for the first time this year fell; the cumulative export of fertilizer 22208000 tons, an increase of 6810000000; exports 41.4% U.S. dollars, an increase of 47.2%.
Five, demand has picked up
Consumption of chemical fertilizer is now growing. From 1 to August, the national fertilizer apparent consumption volume (fold pure, the same below) 44304000 tons, an increase of 2.4%, the first time since 2014 growth. Where urea table apparent consumption 1875.6_wan million tons, growth of 4.1%; phosphate table apparent consumption 1025.6 million tons, growth of 4.3%; potassium form apparent consumption of 69.6 million tons, an increase of 7.1%; diammonium phosphate (kind of) table apparent consumption of 8.333 million tons, down 3.9%. Fertilizer consumption in the near future growth, mainly due to the increase in inventory, the long-term trend has not changed.
Six, chemical fertilizer market fluctuations
Bureau of price index shows that in August the price of chemical fertilizer manufacturing rose 2.6%, or down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, the cumulative decline of 0.8%, compared with the previous July rose 0.5 percentage points.
August, the market monitoring of more than 10 kinds of major fertilizer varieties, the chain rose varieties fell to 50%, an increase of about 70%. Chemical fertilizer market is still on the rise in general. Among them, the urea market price 1680 yuan / ton, down 3.4%, an increase of 5.7%;
Average price of diammonium phosphate 2880 yuan / tons, annulus comparing fell 3.4%, an increase of 9.1%; ammonium phosphate fold 2100 yuan / ton, rose 0.5%, an increase of 4.5%; tons of domestic potassium chloride fold 2080/, annulus comparing rose 1.0%, representing a decrease of 1.0%; 45% of sulfur based compound fertilizer price 2310 yuan / tons, annulus comparing fell 1.7%, an increase of 1.3%.
Export prices basically stable. 8 month Urea Export Price (FOB price, the same below) for $296.6 / tons, the chain down 1.4%, rose 9.5%; $460.5 diammonium phosphate export price / ton, down 0.9% QoQ, rose 6.9%; ternary compound fertilizer, the export price of $56.46 / ton, mom up 3.4%, representing a decrease of 16.0%. August import price of potassium sulfate (CIF) was $562.8 / ton, up 5.9%, down 0.5%.
Seven, economic growth forecast
August, by the impact of oil prices, oil and chemical market continues to be a substantial correction, the industry economic operation downward pressure significantly increased, but the basic surface has not changed steadily. The late three quarter, the industry may also run the industry may have some fluctuations, but the overall will remain stable.
Fertilizer market may be a shock adjustment of the situation. At present, the domestic fertilizer production significantly accelerated, supply increases, but the market demand expansion is limited, coupled with the decline in exports, supply and demand contradiction again highlights, is expected this year, the price of fertilizer market may be adjusted to adjust the situation, increased competition, prices may decline, fertilizer industry will therefore be affected.