"Burdened by overcapacity fertilizer market to speed up the process of marketization, optimization and reorganization to accelerate the industry, the state take care of their special commodity let go step by step." 石旭旭 Zhongyu information analyst, told reporters that "despite the difficulties, but fertilizer business is difficult to avoid entering into competition in this survival of the fittest. "
Since the beginning of the fourth quarter, as the market gradually fall into the mop-up stage, fertilizer advance into the transition stage before winter storage, in addition to local there are sporadic prepared fertilizer outside, inside there is little new single transaction, the market has entered the off-season. Autumn is getting stronger, and the fertilizer market has been ahead of winter.
Shixu Xu said that in the first three quarters of the fertilizer market policies on a number of changes. First of all, the beginning of fertilizer export tariffs canceled seasonal division, the implementation of a unified annual export tax. Customs statistics show that 1 in August Chinese exports of DAP 4.327 million tons, compared to last year grew 83.48%; urea, 1 to August, total exports of 8,543,300 tons, an increase of 29.6%. Since the implementation of the new tariff, ammonium phosphate and urea exports have improved significantly. January fertilizer canceled railway preferential tariffs; April fertilizers preferential tariff canceled the production of electricity will perform the same types of industrial and commercial electricity; in May, the Ministry of Agriculture launched the 2020 Action Plan for zero growth fertilizer; until August, the long-rumored VAT is finally unveiled. Policy changes followed, making fertilizer companies overwhelmed, but remain the same, the state the means to accelerate industrial restructuring.
Again look at the trend of raw material. Although fluctuations in the price of NPK the first three quarters, but the range is limited, compared with last year is a significant decline in potassium, which more from the new capacity is too large, the contradiction between supply and demand caused. And this year a number of policy changes, the limited impact on the urea, ammonium phosphate, potash prices, supply and demand is still the primary factor affecting prices.
Market mentality is changing, in the iron freight, after the tariff concessions canceled, companies are interested in leveraging the favorable policies of price increases, and eventually it is difficult to achieve. Outside help hype luck, might as well focus on improving product quality, optimize the industrial structure itself. Industry and recession, the industry's focus is not only in terms of price, but more concerned about the future development.
Entering the fourth quarter, the fertilizer market will shift the focus Dongchu, because in recent years, increasingly weak awareness of light storage dealers, plus this year's "southern flood and northern drought" severely affected crops, intensive processing scale atrophy, reduced demand for raw grain farmers grain lower profits, so that the terminal decline fertilizer enthusiasm. Many companies are not optimistic for winter storage, pre factors that VAT has been a slight decline in signs of rising prices, the fertilizer market has come winter.