In the supply of excess in a large environment more prominent market share of the importance of urea enterprises will inevitably fall in a short time to meet the downstream manufacturers, bidding is inevitable. And the recent recovery of urea production enterprises increased, reduce the demand on the international market and India may be the ninth round of bidding are regarded as a negative factor, or to guide the domestic price of urea to return to decline from the middle of this month, back down to the level of this round of price hikes before.
Urea manufacturers profit margins, there is no guarantee that some time ago, the industry has been talking about coal prices sharply downward to urea industry "benefit", profit space of urea from the previous 10 ~ 20 yuan (ton price, the same below) increased to more than 100 yuan, which lead to more intense downstream in the price game; the recent manufacturers began to attention to natural gas prices impact on the cost of urea.
Although there is still no official document to see the price adjustment, but from the national development and Reform Commission was informed that the drafting and promoting the reform of the price mechanism, the revised "price law", in key areas and key areas of natural gas, and promote the reform of prices continue to achieve new breakthroughs and new results. The industry believes that natural gas prices or will soon shift from government pricing to market pricing. More individual gas head urea enterprises in the beginning of 11 to enjoy the price of natural gas, the cost of urea decreased, while the company also lowered the price of urea.
Energy commodity market gradually to the urea industry brought greater profit space, but there seems to be no transformation for corporate welfare, but to bring the more helpless is expected to decline in value. First, the excess supply of urea, annual sales in profit or upside down situation, the cost is reduced profits space very soon will be the manufacturers actually selling price and compressed; secondly, downstream manufacturers already accustomed to the use of negative factors and the manufacturers of the game, overwhelmed by the cost of urea fell just can make a big fuss about.
India tender forced China to cut prices in India in October 30th, the eighth round of the tender results announced, although the total amount of 27 tons of urea received 2680000 tons of urea, plus 350000 tons of optional, but the final volume is only 780000 tons, and adhering to the choice of price from low to high practice for procurement. It is understood that there are about 650000 tons or more supply of goods from China, the implementation of the price is also basically in the bid for low-cost area. Even from the overall mainstream of the tender from 263 to 265 dollars in the CIF projections, China's urea FOB price is probably only 251 to 252 dollars. The industry is no longer mentioned before how to look good on the topic of India tender. The manufacturer is quietly set in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Xinji price also fell to 1420 ~ 1440 yuan.
However, for a point of view, this is not a lot of India tender volume, making India domestic urea supply and demand situation is more real, and whether it will launch a ninth round of bidding in mid November there is uncertainty. But it is certain that the current domestic urea enterprises will be at a lower price set port, port stocks will remain hovering at a million tons level. If India later re tender, to the domestic manufacturers are only the way to cut prices.
At this point, but also bring the price of urea in the bottom of the argument. With the price of energy commodities, downstream manufacturers more and more that reference in recent years of urea price only to pre judge this year of urea dips price. This also shows that to use the idea to determine the change of urea price.