Compound fertilizer market is the current trend of flat, light storage start-up time repeatedly postponed, the market wait-and-see sentiment strong, 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer mainstream factory quotation in 1850~2000 yuan (ton price, the same below); 45% of sulfur based compound fertilizer mainstream factory price in 2200~2380 yuan (ton price, similarly hereinafter); currently 45% sulfur nitrate fertilizer mainstream factory offer yuan in 2900~3100. From the market outlook, the author believes that the composite fertilizer prices fell a foregone conclusion, late 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer factory price may fall to 1800~1950 yuan, 45% sulfur based compound fertilizer factory price may be in the 2000~2200 yuan.
The main reasons are the following three points:
First, the price of raw materials fell. Since 2015 November, urea prices continued downward, Shandong mainstream factory price fell to 1340~1360 yuan and 20~40 yuan, there are still negotiating space; ammonium chloride market weakness, the local price drop, dry ammonium mainstream factory price 450~500 yuan, the transaction can be increased about space, about 40~80 yuan; ammonium phosphate continued weakness in Hubei. 55% powdery ammonium low actual output fell below 1900 yuan, and can guarantee to the end of 2; potassium chloride needs light, adequate supply, on the spot to border trade market like potassium chloride 62% white crystal, there is pressure phenomenon, mainstream price 2000 yuan; potassium sulfate prices continue to fall, Shandong 50% powdered potassium sulfate mainstream factory price 2700 yuan, 2600 yuan price gradually increased. Raw material prices lower, making the cost of production of compound fertilizer decreased.
Two is the lower prices of agricultural products. Since last September, the prices of agricultural products have dropped, corn prices fell as high as 30%, a lot of economic crop prices have also declined. Pomelo, grapes, apples and other fruit prices fell sharply. White radish, cabbage and other vegetables are also lower prices. The price of agricultural products is lower, the farmers' enthusiasm for planting, and the amount of fertilizer is reduced.
Three is the fierce market competition, the compound fertilizer enterprises have price space. According to industry statistics, as of 2014, the annual production capacity of about 2 tons of compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer enterprises in more than 3400, the actual production and sales of about 50 million tons, the average operating rate of less than 25%. In recent years, the compound fertilizer factory especially listed company compound fertilizer enterprises, have staking the country, capacity is frequently hundreds of thousands of tons, with millions of tons, making compound fertilizer production capacity surplus problem is becoming more and more serious, in order to seize the market, price competition becomes a important section.
In addition, the compound fertilizer industry profit space, but also makes compound fertilizer manufacturers have bargain cost. In recent years, compound fertilizer price has been compared to the elemental fertilizer price is on the high side, now urea fertilizer enterprises elemental many in a loss of status, and compound fertilizer enterprises are generally profitable, some compound fertilizer of listed company's annual profit up hundreds of millions of yuan. For the fertilizer manufacturers, the main problem is how to expand the sales volume, appropriate profit sharing is not difficult.