New year's Day is approaching, which marks the 2016 to 2015 fertilizer winter storage period has entered the second half. Single urea on the overall situation of fertilizer production, the downstream market performance can be described as the worst of the year. Dealers generally hold a wait-and-see attitude, I was preparing fertilizer with mining pin, to avoid the risk. As far as I know, as of the end of December, most of the provincial agricultural company is in with the factory are repeatedly after the game remains the choice of a temporary price or the Fed interlock operation. Today, even if urea ex factory price fell to 1250 yuan / ton, industry after the city of Qi is not as good as before, far more lively and not too big good sing empty urea market outlook. In fact, after experiencing urea downturn in 2015, the market still did not see the positive support, and the industry itself has been highlighted the impact of excess capacity. At present, the first quarter of 2016, in addition to the spring Market urea, there is no substantial positive.
Urea Export does not need to bet. With urea in 2016 announced the tariff, the industry is also expected to be removed limited. For China, the urea FOB has from the early 2015 $290 / ton down to the end of $234 / ton, I believe exports by country and trader of auction sales is main cause of urea plunges sharply. As a result of China's annual uniform customs, the flexibility of foreign operations. Only in the 9 years of the urea bidding of India as an example, each round of procurement have the spirit of "looting" mentality hunters low-cost urea. Moreover, in the international market also exists the excess supply, so prices will be bid on China. Even so, the domestic manufacturers are still no lack of suppliers, which can also be seen in the domestic pressure of large. 2016 tariffs are not adjusted, the contradiction between supply and demand in unresolved, the trader to pricing right to speak, coupled with a quarter of the Federal Reserve or interest rates continue to rise, domestic urea FOB escape has been suppressed by the destiny. Urea Export has no need to bet.
The market does not need. This week is the new year's day, downstream market short storage enthusiasm low, large and medium-sized dealers seems to have tired of "Porter" mode of operation, especially after "Ping Jinping goes out" operation even in the past to make the point of "hard money" is also very difficult to ensure the and industry all over the Snape chose silence, market feedback is also cautious about careful, at least for now on next year's spring to bearish attitude. Of course, there are some people out of the stock speculation, and once again think of Buffett's words: "when others fear greed in the greed of others fear." Perhaps this sentence in many years ago, the urea winter storage operation can win half of the industry's identity, but now it is difficult to resonate. There are two reasons: first of all, it is clear that the industry is not afraid of death, less people. Secondly, gambling hunters can bring profit space is limited, has lost the necessary.
Good support does not need to bet. The industry for the first quarter of 2016 urea market can not be described as confidence, but at least by the past experience, urea positive support mainly from the four aspects of supply and demand, cost, export, policy. Control the current urea market, supply and demand excess no operating rates down; because of raw material price decline caused by the cost of support is not strong temporarily unable to change; export is still passive expected; policy more towards on the regulation of the market economy. The urea industry is undoubtedly out of production trend, short-term hard to find really good support, so not to.
To sum up, the urea industry at this time can be said to be in a more embarrassing situation. The situation is unknown, the lack of clear attitude of the downstream dealers, and manufacturers in the game price is high, low, not on the. So that manufacturers continue to cut prices, the domestic market temporarily into a stalemate, at this time, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, the mainstream urea production factory price has dropped to 1280-1300 yuan / ton. This price may be considered in the same period in previous years may be the bottom, but now it is still in circulation as the word "risk". In short, because urea market in a downturn trend, the industry has no gambling city mentality.