Fertilizer trend and listen and analysis
Author: Zhao Hongye source: Chinese fertilizer network release time: 2016-01-22 is read 26 times
The coldest days of the year, now is a year the coldest days, for the fertilizer industry, also be 15-16 years has the most difficult period. At this stage the arrival of compound fertilizer in the Northeast winter storage volume increased slightly, but the terminal market has yet to start, for lack of demand for raw materials, and understand this to Shandong compound fertilizer enterprises urea storage prices fell to $1260-1270 (ton price, the same below), 55% of a powdery ammonium Shandong storage price 1950 yuan (acceptance), individual high-end for 2050 yuan (acceptance), price adjustment after the Salt Lake Potash 60% crystal agent package to 2080 yuan, Lop Nur 51% powder of potassium sulfate to station price 2500 yuan for agents can guarantee.
In addition to potash fertilizer by the VAT in early September raised, most mainstream fertilizer price price quickly, the decline of the miserable, really beyond the industry expected; for in the market before and after the Spring Festival, and see what they say:
A large scale compound fertilizer enterprises responsible for procurement: recent compound fertilizer enterprises started to run low, large amount of business inventories were in about 3-5 million tons, and daily shipments only hundreds of tons, goods to go bad, so the Spring Festival before the urea demand is limited, ammonium is still a part of the momentum, and there is still million tons of inventory, can still maintain the Spring Festival during the production of potash and of direct cooperation, if the market further deterioration, compound fertilizer will once again to limit or stop production to relieve some of the pressure. For after the Spring Festival didn't have high expectations, latest in the first month after 15 logistics will gradually return to normal, so before the tenth day of the tenth month is in a wait-and-see mainly, kingpin inventory, is expected to post will have peak demand, but the duration was short, the market can hardly be positive.
, a large trading company manager: some recent small compound fertilizer enterprise plans to resume production, procurement of 1000-3000 tons of urea, is expected before the Spring Festival of ammonium chloride and urea to take the goods will be improved, but in the next week for urea manufacturers eager to ship, price or will continues to decline, or guarantee policy. For ammonium recently has been tepid, although ammonium companies introduced tentative guarantee policy, but downstream of compound fertilizer enterprises and traders still sidelined, only need to purchase, after the Spring Festival market also temporarily not be according to turn for the better. In terms of potash, there is news that the contract is expected to wait until after May to wait until after, so there may be a shortage of supply in May, and now the price of potash is still high.
The forecast: the author thinks that urea prices, although it is not yet bottomed out, but the downside Co., recently some compound fertilizer enterprises or traders have action, but not the amount of, military and agriculture also not yet has the support, is expected to recently urea prices there will still be down slightly, in the tenth day of the first month to 15 shipped back to normal, compound fertilizer enterprises or trade chamber of Commerce on-demand procurement, but still not too large.
For ammonium, before the Spring Festival without good support, prices will continue to decline, low turnover in focus gradually downward, downstream of compound fertilizer enterprises and traders are still a number of purchasing of supply, so before the Spring Festival downstream only on-demand procurement or temporarily stop purchasing, after the Spring Festival on the tenth day of the first month to 15 before the downstream will still continue to wait and see, the latter will have short time demand for the arrival of the peak, prices will not get better, in a peak, is expected to market will become dull.
Potash, now Salt Lake and the Luo potassium although has promulgated the new price, but the lower still reflect the price is on the high side, coupled with the 2016 contract signing time than usual will come later, prior to this, the potash market is still uncertain, so downstream enterprises temporarily not to purchase large quantities, but this time may supply shortage situation will occur, it is recommended that downstream reserve some potash fertilizer to prepare production needs.