Bid farewell to the 2015, ushered in 2016, fertilizer market is still not obvious change for the better, 10 years, the price of urea have record low, potash Hong goods increased, sell upside down, phosphate and compound fertilizer prices lower, poor Dongchu demand less, 2015 fertilizer winter storage market is the most miserable year, then Xiaobian why after 2016 fertilizer market is expected to turn for the better it? Wait a minute, why not see bottom, is expected to rise? I'm not in fertilizer people eat reassurance, in the environment can be well documented:
International news came good news: WTO to cancel the import of agricultural subsidies
China is a large agricultural country, in 2014 China's grain output reached 6.07 tons, although the eleven continued to increase, but when the grain import volume of 1 tons for the first time exceeded. First half of 2015, China's total imports including wheat, maize and rice, grain and grain powder reached 16.29 million tons, an increase of more than 60%, according to the projections of the Convention, last year China's imports will be more than 1 million tons. China's exports of agricultural products in the international competitiveness is low, and the import of agricultural products in the domestic market after the price lower than the price of local products. Due to increased imports and price to occupy the low-end advantages, so this year, whether it is domestic main crops such as corn and cotton purchase price decline, farmers were reluctant to relatively strong, thus fundamentally affected the basic fertilizer market purchases, chain under, domestic fertilizer enterprises spent a relatively "cold" winter storage.
The tenth Ministerial Conference of the world trade organization was concluded in December 19, 2015 in Nairobi, capital of Kenya. The meeting finally adopted the Nairobi Ministerial Declaration on Africa and other developing countries are most concerned about the agricultural export competition to reach a consensus, the first 162 members promised to abolish agricultural export subsidies. Developed economies promised to immediately cancel most of its agricultural export subsidies, developing countries will be canceled in 2018.
The meeting for the first time on the full cancellation of subsidies to make a commitment. Message one, suddenly the world is boiling, to export agricultural products in the developing countries, it is a very good news. After the cancellation of agricultural export subsidies of developed countries, the competitiveness of domestic exports of agricultural products will rise, to solve the domestic agricultural products inventory pressure, after the implementation of this resolution will significantly improve the peasant's income also will increase the fertilizer purchases.
The domestic supply and demand adjustment has contributed to productivity, the new machine
Demand measured investment, consumption, export three carriages, the supply side there are labor, land, capital, innovation, the four elements. Since 2015, President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang continuous mention of the supply side reforms, especially in 2016 when the Politburo meeting to study economic reform in December 14, 2015, once again put forward the supply side of the reform requirements. Supply side reform, the problem is not a lack of demand, but the supply of the problem, not the production of too many, the consumer demand for the supply of things.
Excess production capacity of fertilizer has been an indisputable fact, does not eliminate the backward, the industry will be in "price - production - increasing - expansion - price" the vicious circle of perpetual reincarnation. 2015 more from the government to the side of the reform, on the one hand is to resolve the excess capacity of the new measures, on the other hand is a new driving force for economic growth, I believe 2016 supply side reforms will force and bring new opportunities for the fertilizer industry.
In summary, the import of agricultural products and domestic subsidies to cancel the supply side reforms are from the policy of good fertilizer industry, after the baptism of depth in 2015, 2016 on the fertilizer industry opportunities and challenges, WTO to cancel the import subsidies of agricultural products for domestic agricultural products to expand sales, increase the income of farmers; supply side reforms conducive to fertilizer to accelerate the adjustment of the industry strategic direction, the survival of the fittest, cut supply, if the 2016 tariff adjustment again and the superposition of the devaluation of the renminbi, will greatly enhance the Chinese fertilizer export competitiveness, while multi force, there is still the possibility of 2016, the gradual recovery of the fertilizer market so need not be too pessimistic, after 2-3 years, the fertilizer industry will usher in the next a spring.