Entered in 2016, finished oil faces more severe production and marketing situation and operational difficulties. I expected a quarter of refined oil resources overall surplus, excess resources will highlight the contradictions in February during the Spring Festival or more.
First of all, the oil market to enter the off-season seasonal demand. Gasoline is mainly commercial and household consumption decreased, diesel mainly industrial and mining and transport industry demand fell, demand is generally lower than other quarters, the severity of the serious degree of resource surplus. Corresponding manufacturing enterprises gasoline inventories has reached high, high South sales enterprise's V gasoline inventory, part to unloading port difficult, resulting in demurrage, both production and sales inventory were no upside potential, the posterior by production enterprises very difficult.
Second, the international oil prices continued downward. Since December 15, 2015 and 29, two consecutive days of refined oil price adjustment is not adjusted with the international oil price changes. As of December 31st has not reduced the cumulative 464 yuan / ton. January 14th this year, the first price adjustment window opens, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 140 yuan and 135 yuan, while determining the floor price of $40 / barrel. According to the current international crude oil prices, the international oil price in 2016 is very difficult to have a larger rebound, a great chance to maintain at a relatively low level, a large number of short term business is unlikely to fill the library.
Again, in July 2015, the state promulgated the qualified crude oil imports liberalization policies, up to now, has 13 local refineries obtained import quotas 55.2 million tons, 2015 annual Shandong to refining processing volume is expected to 50.2 million tons, is expected in 2016 processing scale is likely to double. Refining production from the crude oil supply has been further assurance, from production to sales market competition will be further intensified, Shandong to refining the average operating rate from September 2015 and gradually increase, to market low-cost resources to further increase the amount of, the contradiction between supply and demand further highlight the, market competition is more intense.
In addition, refining and chemical enterprises in the North sea transit capacity is insufficient to alleviate, according to the request of the State Department of transportation, December 1, 2015, Dalian shipping companies complete prohibition single hull tanker oil transportation plan execution, single hull ship forced to withdraw from the shipping market, within a period of time, it will cause tension in the ship, rising freight costs. Northeast Marketing Company surrender about 25 aircraft single hull oil tankers, sea transit capacity cuts 9 million tons, not to add the capacity, which restricts the refining and chemical enterprises in the north of port efficiency in the sea.
Currently, the oil factory difficult has caused production enterprise inventory high prices, inventory growth faster refinery production have already entered the countdown. Direct smelting enterprises have to strengthen communication and coordination, expand the product delivery channels to ensure the production of posterior. But in the face of a quarter of refined oil market environment, refined oil to inventory work in the short term effects are limited, difficult situation caused by the high deposit will continue.