After the Spring Festival, the spring fertilizer market has started, the previous deadlock began to break, but overall, the market to start slowly, Renqibuwang, always feel provided disinclination. Sub varieties, urea is a relatively good trend, Henan, Shandong and other places in the Spring Festival and the Spring Festival after the 30~80 yuan / ton of up, but now the resistance is heavy, high-end prices have begun to fall slightly. P and K prices did not rise, the market outlook can now hold it very well. Compound fertilizer due to the early decline is not large, the market outlook there is a space to make up.
According to the truth, this year spring fertilizer market should not be so unbearable, dealers early for fear of risk, is generally not a lot of winter storage, resulting in low social inventory; and now the price of fertilizer is not high, urea and other varieties have been returned to ten years ago the price, risk can be said is quite small. Spring fertilizer with the upcoming season, the price is so low, the dealer why also dare not take the goods?? so sluggish market, does the reason where after all?
According to the author's analysis, there are two main reasons: first, the serious shortage of market confidence. Now society generally on fertilizer production with fear, think too much fertilizer production. Only by using now buy is a correct path, without risk. Even if the price is low, as long as the stock of goods, some people on the inside, the old fear of falling prices.
In fact, productivity and yield. Large capacity, operating rate is not high, the output is still not high. In nitrogen fertilizer, for example, according to the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association statistics, in 2015 the national nitrogen fertilizer production was 46 million 700 thousand tons, an increase of 2.5%; urea production of 68 million 500 thousand tons in kind, an increase of 3%. And in 2015 China's export volume of nitrogen fertilizer reached tons of pure nitrogen, an increase of 12.5%; export urea 13 million 750 thousand tons, an increase of 1%. 2015 domestic fertilizer production and marketing balance, output growth mainly through the export digestion. If only from the supply and demand relationship, the price of nitrogen fertilizer should not have such a sharp decline. But because of the lack of confidence in the market, to exaggerate the negative effects of excess capacity, "three into a tiger," and pessimism intensified, resulting in more bearish market. Therefore, industry associations and the media need to tell everyone the real market situation, so as not to cause unnecessary panic.
Two is the decline in prices of agricultural products on the market impact is relatively large. In September last year, corn, wheat and other grain prices have changed before the strong rise, fell, corn fell more than 30%. And not just food prices fell, many fruits and vegetables and other economic crops also fell. Hunan new county is a famous town of orange, after the Spring Festival, farmers still have a lot of orange did not sell. In previous years, the acquisition price of 2 yuan per catty, and now only 6 cents a pound, and is not sold, and farmers planting costs are at about 1 yuan a catty, some farmers tearful navel orange trees to be felled. Agricultural prices fell sharply after the negative impact on the fertilizer market is very large, some farmers do not know what kind of good, dealers will not dare to stock up, afraid that when the fertilizer can not sell or goods on the market.
How to break this deadlock? The author believes that the fertilizer industry must be from two aspects to find the way: first, according to the need to produce. We have a concept of the past, during the spring fertilizer manufacturers to full load, high load production, to support agricultural production. The fertilizer market in short supply situation is absolutely correct, but now the market has undergone major changes, in overcapacity, oversupply situation, enterprises should adhere to the on-demand production, farmers need how much production, need what varieties on the production of what products, pay attention to the use of economic load method to organize production.
Two is to enhance confidence. At present, the fertilizer low inventory is a major favorable factors in the spring of this year. According to the supply and marketing cooperatives statistics, the national supply and marketing cooperatives system nitrogen inventory fell 2 million tons, a decline of 20%, outside the system of circulation enterprises may decline even greater. Inventory shortage may become an opportunity to spring fertilizer market this year. In addition, for dealers to goods enthusiasm is not high, the manufacturers can increase direct sales efforts to direct the sale of fertilizer to farmers, whether it is to the manufacturers or farmers, are a good thing.