Spring sales cycle by urea Zhizhang banks
Author: Yang Luyi source: China fertilizer net release time: 2016-03-08 is read 27 times.
The domestic market is bearish. Recently, I continue to be in the industry friend asked to urea ex factory price can return to the level before the Spring Festival, which seems to have been marked by spring sales period has ended. This outcome is expected, but still higher than before the spring or because of a lack of support ahead of the end of early. And feedback of upstream and downstream firms from the point of view, it seems we in adapting to the fast pace of "transition", most market participants is not from the festival in the first round of price hikes in retreats, and also thinking of in have begun to decline in the market how to protect themselves. Vendors actively operating effectively and directly contributed to this year North spring sales cycle severely diminished, was originally forecast a month of market prices eventually within two weeks died. Also take into account the urea industry remain about 70% of the operating rate, domestic urea market will continue to influence by the excess of supply and demand is expected, downstream distributors selling inventory is in no hurry to replenishment.
The international market price without the city. Another spring festival dull trend, international urea prices in February continuously rising, up to now, the mainstream supply of urea FOB quotation or basically reached 25-30 dollars / ton. China's small granular urea FOB from $190 / ton rose to high $217 / ton. At the same time, the Black Sea FOB prices also rose to $217-220 / ton, FOB sea Baltic also reported a US $205-208 / ton. In fact, the current round of international prices from the U.S. market to start and accompanied by a certain degree of speculation. According to my understanding, the purchase demand actually can be regarded as "small talk", as well as the international market price is obviously raised, but the transaction has not improved. Objectively speaking, the current international price of urea with the calendar year compared to the same period is still cheap, if perennial bottom price judge, the procurement of the majority of nations should be without scruple the disk access. But also because of the international market is excess supply, taking into account the China offer short board, the international trader is very cautious. On the other hand, international suppliers are reluctant to sell low price, then the seller and the buyer have game mood, leading to the recent international market price without the city. It is understood, recent a single India 4 million tons of inquiry have been unearthed $210 / tons of price, which will obviously have a guiding role to international price. At the same time, our country also reported a FOB $208 / ton March shipment orders, although the quantity is not big, but also stimulate the trader bargaining attitude.
The next round of market consumption market. The first round of the spring with the domestic price rises down, the industry re bearish market. The rapid change in the industry is really very helpless, but it is not difficult to explain why. From before the Spring Festival in the fourth quarter of last year to this year, domestic urea commonly used fed aggregators will be "inventory forward" to the downstream market. Once the agricultural market, will not only lead to auction sales, but also the rapid distribution in place. It also makes the spring cycle shrinking sales. But objectively speaking, the manufacturers of the current round of speculation spring pull up the strategy of bidding makes the final reserve settlement price and unlike preganglionic expected so badly. The downstream distributors once again played the role of porters, primary dealers is due to continued to wait to let go of the relatively substantial profits, then after the summary of spring operation defeat lessons can see part of the primary dealer intentional hunters. At least from the current domestic urea enterprises is not reduced operating rate is rarely mentioned inventory pressure of reality can be judged and the downstream market for spring plowing and manure from that part of more businesses start for the summer market prepare manure. As a result, the summer sales cycles are also likely to shrink as the spring market.
To sum up, this year of urea spring sales cycle too short is not accidental, if according to the current domestic demand and supply excess, ex factory price began to decline and downstream of the primary dealers deliberately stocking hunters state analysis, the domestic price of urea or will be very difficult to price before the holiday, summer fertilizer sales sales cycle and price is possible when social inventory amount and repeat the mistakes of the spring.