Current guest:
Deputy director of the Ministry of information Chinese phosphate fertilizer industry association Wang Ying
Guest view:
The fertilizer industry reshuffle in 2016 will be eliminated, high cost, serious losses, financial difficulties of the enterprises or will not escape. With the gradual deepening of China's aging population and the number of people engaged in heavy physical labor reduction, food consumption, food demand structure is also changing. Low oil prices, industrial demand for food is not flourishing, high inventory and and continuing to prop up the city's acquisition policy means that the longer the inventory cycle.
Policy tends to tighten
At present, China has become the world's major producer and consumer of fertilizer, nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer production capacity, production, consumption ranking first in the world, and more than enough. Wang Ying think, in the domestic chemical fertilizer application process, excessive application, applied blindly phenomenon is widespread, Mu fertilizer 21.9 kg, is 2.6 times that of the United States and the EU 2.5 times. At the same time, fertilization structure of the imbalance, heavy fertilizer, light organic fertilizer, major elements, light trace elements, heavy nitrogen fertilizer, light, phosphorus, potassium, and thus lead to fertilizer use rate is not high, three major grain crops fertilizer utilization rate of 35.2%, 30 percentage points lower than in Europe. From the perspective of the whole industry, the development is still not balanced, excess capacity contradictions, product structure needs to be adjusted, technological innovation capability is not strong, energy saving and environmental protection and resource utilization level is not high.
In this context, in 2015 the domestic chemical fertilizer to resume collection, shipping, electricity, gas prices in terms of preferential policies are also canceled one by one, the state of the fertilizer industry regulation efforts are constantly increasing. January 2016, including the fertilizer industry, including the 19 sectors were included in the credit crunch of banks to withdraw from the industry, in principle, continue to recover the loan, limiting the number of corporate loans.
In this regard, Wang Ying said: "affected by this, rely on bank blood transfusion can barely keep the enterprise faces off the loans, bankruptcy risk; part of the enterprise or initiative to withdraw; effective financial resources from the production of excess industry and 'zombie companies' pumping out, emerging industries and high-tech enterprises will receive financial help. From the visible, 2016 will be the fertilizer industry shakeout years, high cost, serious losses, the financial difficulties of enterprises or doomed. "
Industry vulnerable operation
The domestic nitrogen fertilizer from 1997 onwards completely self-sufficient, in recent years, production has been ranking first in the world, the 2015 nitrogenous fertilizer production capacity 60 million tons (fold pure), self-sufficiency rate of 124%; 2015 phosphate fertilizer production capacity of 23.5 million tons (P2O5), self-sufficiency rate of 143%; 2015 annual production capacity of potash about 700 million tons (K2O), self-sufficiency rate of 53.3%, still need the right amount of imports.
Wang Ying said: 2015 phosphate fertilizer production continued to grow, the domestic demand is stable, the international demand. 2016 start, the market continued downturn in the end of last year, the compound fertilizer industry operating rate is not high, the demand is difficult to pull. With the late spring with the fertilizer market is expected to start warming, but the price volatility is limited. Raw material prices lower, despite the use of fertilizer before the season, the price of nitrogen fertilizer will be a wave of market, but the market competition is still fierce. In terms of potash, domestic production and overseas production capacity continues to increase, the price has been at the bottom of the region, with the collection of value-added tax, the future focus of competition will focus on the comprehensive cost. Due to the high port stocks, downstream start to enhance the slow, short-term low potassium market stability mainly. 2016 fertilizer market is still a difficult year."
Enterprise transition
2015, China's grain yield increased by twelve, farmers' income even faster, the rural people's livelihood improvement continue to make significant progress". In the pursuit of yield, quality and safety benefits more attention, resource and environmental protection and sustainable development of agriculture more attention. 2010-2014 domestic land area from 1.87 million hectares increased to 4.03 million mu, transfer rate increased from 14.67% to 30.32%, agricultural from production orientation, turned into a consumer oriented, from pursuit of quantity to quantity, quality and benefit pay equal attention to.
Wang Ying think, China Grain economy will enter a new round of the downward adjustment cycle, "the aging of the population in our country gradually deepened and engaged in heavy manual labor to reduce the number of, food consumption reduction, grain demand structure also changed, depressed oil prices, industrial products of food demand not flourishing, high rate of inventory and continuous acquisition policy to prop up mean to the inventory cycle longer." Wang Ying stressed: "the demand for food has changed, the farmers' planting structure has changed, and the demand for chemical fertilizer is bound to change."
The current domestic comprehensive agricultural production and economic transformation of the overall trend, Wang Ying put forward five proposals on the future development of chemical fertilizer industry: one is to adapt to changes in the structure of agricultural planting, management and operation of the main mode; two is from the production, sales, use and reduce cost; three is a clear market demand is the future direction fertilizer development, should participate in the improvement of agricultural products and fertilizer market price formation mechanism; four is in the service of high quality agricultural products, promote the reasonable proportion of nitrogen and phosphorus, trace elements, organic inorganic coordination supplement; five is to pay attention to environmental protection, energy saving and emission reduction technology, the renewal of the enterprise, improve the way of fertilization, promoting Precise Fertilization and pay attention to soil improvement."