Fertilizer electricity prices? 3--4 Yuefen urea prices will rise! This is an important message of recent urea industry insiders are concerned.
Its source lies: April 13, 2015 NDRC price department website announced the "reduce coal-fired power tariff and commercial and industrial electricity prices on notice." The circular pointed out, the national coal-fired electricity price per kilowatt-hour down to about 2 cents; commercial and industrial electricity prices nationwide average down about 1.8 cents per kilowatt-hour, effective from April 20, 2015. "Notice" Article key elements for the phasing out tariff concessions fertilizer, fertilizer production of electricity to perform the same electricity business electricity price categories; price difference between the larger place in two steps in place, April 20, 2016 from the abolition of all tariff concessions.
It should be noted, first of all, fertilizer production of electricity concessions canceled, the price of electricity prices in line with the business, and can not be simply interpreted as fertilizer electricity price increase, but rather the fertilizer industry after freight, taxes and other aspects of the market again a process. If the fertilizer after the electricity market, reducing demand for power plants and in this regard the supply of maintenance of stability, the price of electricity fertilizer business after synchronization is possible downgrade (such as the 2015 "Notice" announced a cut in electricity prices as industry and commerce) then urea costs will not increase significantly, or that after the increase in cost will be reduced even below the level before adjustment, especially in the current low prices of crude oil and other commodity-based, poor global economic environment, long-term look at the overall price is likely to lower.
Secondly, the impact of the tariff adjustment brought not particularly large. Fertilizer tariff concessions began in 2004 NDRC "on the fertilizer production of electricity prices on notice", and continues to this day, as long as the specific content understood as a single set of urea plant capacity of no more than 520,000 tons of fertilizer can enjoy preferential electricity policy; launched in 2004 after more than a single set of urea project with annual production of 520,000 tons or less based, that is, electricity fertilizer policies covering more than 50 percent of China's urea production capacity; however it is understood mostly of urea project self-generating, self-sufficient, if not, you need to share power purchased is not large, the price adjustment for the impact of urea should not. In addition, since April 2015 the majority of the country has been properly raised fertilizer electricity prices (some companies is price rose 0.9-1 yuan), in April this year tariff adjustment is to be small, is reported in some areas may only be appropriate, up from 0.1 yuan about the same or slightly higher will be able to achieve consistent commercial and industrial electricity prices, a rough estimate of the cost of urea increased by only about 80-90 yuan / ton. Especially unverified news that the medium and long term for the coal companies may adjust the price and cut coal prices, electricity prices will be largely offset by the increase in costs brought about.
Again, we all know, since September 2015 the complex VAT levy and gas prices are making the market cost of urea has increased, while coal prices are low, domestic demand is low, so urea prices had fallen in the middle was up occasionally, but up the price of short duration and short, showing that the demand is the key factor affecting the price, supply, followed by the final cost.
Finally, indeed April 20 fertilizer electricity price increase is a foregone conclusion, the price will be completely market-oriented, nearly a week since the two rivers Shandong and other places to take the manufacturers are trying to pull up prices (rose 10-20 yuan / ton), but not exactly the price is about to increase the use of this factor, the more positive is the lakes, Jiangsu and Anhui and other rice farmers need to prepare fertilizer started or about to start, the recent few urea ongoing maintenance rotation, combined with the current overall operating rate of fertilizer companies from about mid-February increased by 40% to 80%, and its increasing demand for the raw material of urea, urea currently Linyi region for receiving goods prices also inched 1300 yuan / ton.
Obviously, this situation re-sign with the value-added tax, the price of natural gas market policy on the eve of the situation is too similar! The only difference is that the price adjustment coincides with the industry and agriculture just need to season, it should be able to, but considering the urea industry operating rate has been 77% -78% of the high level, and the front of the two paragraphs mentioned the modest price adjustment, the price has cut the long run possible, especially industrial and agricultural demand and export demand (since mid-February, has fallen for two weeks after the international price rise) are difficult to significantly positive, sum up, China net fertilizer before mid-April that the car urea prices will rise, the duration will be longer, but the increase should not, roughly estimated increase of about 50 yuan / ton.