Most market participants believe that 2016 is more intense urea industry consolidation year, to speed up the production process will, in this environment the urea market has been at a disadvantage, since early February, although urea market take the goods better, but the actual transactions yet It rose significantly, no major improvement in the market, but from the beginning of last week, the majority of our urea prices upstream, prices rebounded slightly, China network urea fertilizer Komago analysts from the following aspects to analyze this wave of market.
Agricultural demand
Current agricultural fertilizer market in wheat, rice, prepared fertilizer stage, although southern Henan wheat due to rain and other reasons the first to start dressing, now coming to a close, but the Shandong and Hebei, wheat, fertilizer has just started, there is a small amount of urea replenishment demand. Jiangsu, Anhui, Hunan and Hubei rice-growing areas of agricultural equipment and more fertilizer in late March early April to start, but that other areas need to start pulling farming, local downstream equipment dealers fertilizer enthusiasm high, farmers need fertilizer prepared ahead of time, manufacturers take the goods smoothly, smaller stocks or almost no inventory, mainly local farmers market demand, mainly in the tapering outward order. Increased agricultural demand is such that last Friday in most parts of the mainstream factory price appears (t price, the same below) ranging from 10-40 yuan rise more because few manufacturers indicate that some pre-orders to go, and the new single is better short-term supply slightly nervous.
Industrial demand
Traditional fertilizer sales season in late March early April, more than the current fertilizer manufacturers during mass production, high industry operating rates, the overall 8 percent, in some areas manufacturers basically full open. Many manufacturers in the production of NPK ratio of 28: 6: 6 and 30: 5: 5 formula of nitrogen fertilizer, urea demand is high, so the urea manufacturers new orders in orders from industrial fertilizer factory occupied a higher proportion. According to Chinese statistics net fertilizer, urea fertilizer plant in Linyi currently connected to the purchase price of about 1280-1300 yuan, compared with prices of goods connected to the end of February 10-20 yuan raised. But said the current market feedback fertilizer sales in general, the market price is slightly weak, few areas of high-end offer down, the range of 100-150 yuan. Poor sales of fertilizer or urea to some extent the impact of raw materials procurement initiative, while at the same time on the occasion of the late rice fertilizer season, a large number of sales of fertilizer, urea, farmers need market share will be slightly reduced, this competition will be more or less diluted urea prices.
In summary, the agricultural urea market by market demand and industrial fertilizer plant while increasing both the procurement of dual positive boost, the price of urea rebound in the environment is not an ideal situation, which increases the confidence in the relevant market participants, for the next purchase more active, there are expected to be 20-30 million before the end of the rebound. But still wary of this wave of market rebound may be the end of March, beginning of April the market ahead of overdraft, it does not rule out a move for the April price increase early momentum, especially in the short term, India has not yet posted the tender, the poor performance of the export market , the market for domestic urea prices should not be too optimistic.