Lunzhang spring, prices temporarily stable. Although the poor "start" spring of this year, but the industry is still looking for the opportunity to operate. Since before the terminal equipment market limited the amount of fertilizer, the fertilizer industry insiders predict will bring a replenishment market, the more opportunity to price stability. At present, the main producing areas of the domestic urea factory price bottomed out, bring to the market a little psychological support. Only plowing just need perspective, since last winter storage since they lack equipment dealers fertilizer enthusiasm, continued to decline in the price of urea plant had to choose to make a wide range of the Federal Reserve to jointly sell. This exposes farmers "as used with the take" new concepts and business continuity contradiction between production, this way, there is often uncertainty in the market, not only in the time period and difficult to predict, the price is also a lack of reference standards. Currently, the preparation of fertilizer and fertilizer was significantly out of line, each forming a market price, was interrupted in the middle of the price bearish. But also because of excess industry supply urea prices Lunzhang situation is more common, and the prices of shorter period, can be described as short-lived. It's no wonder a fellow wrote, "and urea prices rose and cherish."
Cancel the preferential tariff revisit. As a traditional urea, urea production is generally recognized as the power consumption per ton of 800-1000 degrees, accounting for about 1/4 of the cost structure of urea, second only to coal. Thus, the conventional preferential tariff for fertilizer business has been a urea plant, "welfare." But as rail freight, VAT, etc. These preferential policies have been canceled for fertilizer. Fertilizer tariff concessions will be phased out. Based on market conditions observed last April 20 first round of the "Step by Step" can be seen after the price adjustment for the cost of speculation face can really bring price rose, but in excess supply and demand in the market environment, the industry did not see expected gains. Recent nitrogen fertilizer associations mentioned preferential tariff in April will be abolished in Xiamen meeting, also raised the average price of 0.10 yuan / kWh. He said the head of coal, gas first urea urea cost per ton will increase 95 yuan / ton, 75 yuan / ton, the statistical impact on the urea production capacity of up to 39 million tons. I do not want to talk about this "rally" did not want to evaluate the "authenticity", speculation is the price trend is a means, but the final price will be determined by market supply and demand.
Urea foreign trade has been bearish. Compared with the same period in 2016, the Indian tender somewhat reserved. Last year in March, we have been in hot India's second tender topic. But for now, the latest port urea FOB offer only $ 199-206 / ton, set in Hong Kong accounted for about the price of 1,200 yuan / ton, and then the plane to shipping, ex-factory price can be imagined. It is understood that, since late February, the new single domestic urea stagnation set in Hong Kong. Even the port of arrival or pre-orders for replenishment, or is of strategic operations. Feedback from the current international market, India is overwhelmed by the tender is expected to announce in late March, the domestic manufacturers FOB basic forecast at $ 210 / ton. The recent reference has been traded as a small granular urea FOB t price only around $ 210 / ton. In addition, for the current domestic speculation it is about to be raised ex-factory price of urea, traders obviously very difficult to purchase for its supply of $ 220 / ton offshore, let alone go any lower price. In fact, the domestic port stocks over 1.5 million tons of urea due to the higher cost of reflux, the majority of exports only bite the bullet, so to re-pricing of foreign investors. Unless of urea domestic and foreign trade maintaining a large price difference, or traders boycott cheap exports, or can only wait for India "looting."
In summary, the domestic fertilizer market started the South, so as to drive north, east and central China and other places urea prices bottoming out, but the industry is still speculation continued to pull up electricity prices in Italy, but the empirical analysis of last year, electricity costs price support is extremely limited, more or determined by market supply and demand. Currently, domestic demand needs wheeled spring, make life difficult for long-term positive; cheap exports has suffered a bottleneck. Lack of good overall market, urea still operating risk.