Positive from domestic demand support. After the Qingming, the domestic urea market is indeed a brief period of confusion, most of the urea plant in most parts of the price drop, the decline of more than 50 yuan / ton. However at this time, industry bearish, promising two kind of voice can still coexist, visible downstream manufacturers of urea market outlook is still looking up mentality. In fact, the industry generally will 4 months early, regarded for the shortage of domestic demand suspended period, urea decline less often is 100 yuan / tons to more than 150 yuan / ton. Only the price fell to the expected urea factory, manufacturers will sell hunters for the summer stocking with fertilizer. Urea market is slightly different this year, always lower than the same period in previous years, the factory price of downstream manufacturers to reduce the risk awareness. This also led to hunters not only reference factors in terms of price, are more likely to open the "follow" mode. Once the downstream industry to launch a new round of demand procurement, domestic agricultural fertilizer will also be synchronized start. It is estimated that the two quarter of the domestic plywood enterprises consumption of urea will remain at 150-200 million tons / month level, while 4 months in the middle of the north, central and East China summer agricultural fertilizer will also start. Compared with the domestic about 67% of urea enterprises operating rate, production of about 450 million tons / month, calculated according to the supply and demand, manufacturers apparently did not have much sales pressure, and urea prices are more likely to in the recent price ceiling to restart after a single round of rebound in the climax.
The increase slower than expected. Recent international urea market improved slightly, several mainstream producing offer continuous increase, the Black Sea Yuzhnyy urea granules FOB reported to 200-203 dollars / tons, the Baltic small particles urea FOB also rose to $198-200 / tons, the port of our country small particles urea price also rose to $211-215 / tons, but domestic manufacturers of attention degree is not high, a reasonable explanation and is foreign trade price is not attractive, is out of touch with urea in the markup. If the domestic export FOB urea as a benchmark, at least $230 / ton for domestic manufacturers to accept. From the first quarter of this year, the operation of domestic ports can be seen, stock traders port stored disdain from the exit of the upside down, a part of even chose to return home. According to customs data released in 2016 - 1 February Urea Export physical quantity respectively 1415100 million tons and 63.7 million tons, and last January 167.97 million tons in the, February 129.32 million tons can be described as compared to sharply lower, only comparing February monthly urea exports, representing a decrease of 50.7%. Believe that this year in March, there is still room for growth. In fact, China's Urea Export reduction, to give international suppliers more game opportunities. Especially in India and other urea import country short of China's urea plan failed, the international urea price to usher in a rally. According to foreign media news, India or will be in the second half of the 4 launched during the first round of bidding. Objectively speaking, unless India moderate compromise to raise the purchase price of urea, otherwise China will become the export resistance, so that India has no edge, made in china".
Many factors resist short. In early April, the part of the manufacturers are interested in shorting domestic urea prices, but because the market being many uncertain and a number of favorable factors supporting, urea prices after the limited decline again stabilized with a new round of rise. Among them, in addition to the domestic industry just need, the international market price can be described as positive, there are still the following several aspects are worth paying attention: the first is the routine maintenance of urea enterprises, in order to ensure the agricultural season under a stable supply, the majority of urea enterprises will choose to arrange the maintenance plan in April, more or less will be reduced this month domestic urea production, once the market started in the summer by fertilizer, local supply may be tight. Secondly, although the price hike is regarded as the industry has been cold fried rice ", but does not rule out the possibility mentioned again. Again, domestic demand is still have expectations of centralized procurement, risk expectation makes the downstream agricultural stock market is low; compound fertilizer enterprises procurement of raw materials is according to the need of quantitative; stable procurement of plywood enterprises and further increment of space. Therefore, the second half of the domestic urea market or will be further precipitation in many factors again after the rally, the price return to the previous high.