Market waiting for the positive out of. Go to the end of April, domestic urea market so-called positive support have been mostly "xianshanlushui", the industry also happy to took the opportunity to speculation, so that parts of the urea ex factory price of experienced technical adjustment a week decline after the rebound again prior to the high price. Only from this period of two weeks of urea change process analysis, the downstream market is not lack of confidence, not lack of hot spots. Policy of tariff adjustments increase the production cost of urea; demand has called the dark horse of the plywood industry support; long-term procurement of a first half of compound fertilizer and in the summer by fertilizer to the traditional needs of reveal all the details; export goodbye India disappeared from already a long time of urea tender. During this period, as long as the dealers do not go too much serious hunters, basically can make profit in the current round of ups and downs in the hands. But from the recent market feedback from all over the country, the price rise significantly slowed, local stagnation, how much some sense of the rise. Can not be afraid to worry about whether the market will bring the best to bring a new price drop.
Demand did not increase the supply of the first drop. The so-called not deviate from the price from the market supply and demand of urea. Recently to see the peer analysis article throws doubt: farmers need to support weaker, industrial demand not too big, effect is not obvious in the moment to boost exports, urea why suddenly face brightening. Its comments are attributed to two reasons: first, the price adjustment, the two is the India tender. I do not deny, after all, different people have different views. Personally, I believe the questions should be starting from the supply and demand, admittedly agriculture weak demand, limited industrial demand, export situation is not optimistic, but the overall demand can hardly be increased, but still can be considered as stable. And from another point of view, if the supply reduction can also contribute to the price of goods. Nearly a month of domestic dealers can obviously feel difficult to take the goods, quantity for enterprises to become the best reason for the price of urea. According to industry statistics: April only adjust capacity or arrange the maintenance or temporary transfer of slow-release urea fertilizer device is not in the minority. Including: Western Shandong, Shandong Ruixing, Shandong Hualu, Shandong Mingshui, Shandong plain, Anhui Haoyuan, Hebei Dongguang, Hebei Cangzhou Chemical, Zhongyuan Dahua, Henan Jin, Henan surplus in Chifeng, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia coal, Shaanxi Weihua, enterprise. In addition, according to the author, there are some urea plant plans to arrange maintenance in April. As a result, may appear in the prediction of demand "temporary", turned into a lean supply". In addition to the stability of the industry as well as compound fertilizer business needs as a support, the natural formation of urea market rally.
Urea Export reproduction game. Last week, India MMTC does not release the purchase of imported urea quantitative standard, April 25th, to May 23rd shipment. Then rumors planned purchases of about 800 thousand tons, and the intent of the CIF price of $220 / ton. Only in terms of price, there is no sincerity and there is a sense of the game. At present, the domestic price and export price of derailment, don't say 220 U. s.dollars / ton CIF, even if is FOB only accounting to 1280 yuan / tons set in Hong Kong, at least with current domestic frequently 1300-1350 yuan / ton ex factory price differs very far, this is undoubtedly in the psychological test of the trader. Simple to say is gambling, in early April exports and selling the domestic market dealers has suffered heavy losses. How many traders dare to sell exports? Believe that this time the India tender will be the game of Chinese traders, so that the international market to redefine the benchmark price. Of course, there are individual domestic manufacturers in the premise of bearish may domestic market acceptable urea 220 U. s.dollars / ton FOB. But I'm afraid that's just wishful thinking.
In summary, the short-term urea market support factors temporarily uncertain, more favorable to the best of the argument, so that the rise in the slowdown or even stagnation. But the reference in April of domestic urea enterprises overhaul, cut, temporary converting situation is more frequent, extent, become the advantage of market supply and demand. In addition, in the face of India tender, the domestic game face greater than the compromise side, with its 220 U.S. dollars / ton CIF the price as the latter part of the export price reference is clearly too early. Week is expected in most areas of urea market entered a short period of consolidation, temporary price stability.