Hope, hope, finally mmtc India on the occasion of the April 13 issued a standard purchase could not determine the number of small particles urea and / or large granular urea tender and will be at the end of April 25, Istanbul time 14:00, the valid period of the tender as of May 2nd, goods on May 23 before loading, no doubt is the tender has aroused attention of urea industry, then the Indian urea bidding outcome, the urea market of our country have any effect?
Answer: whether the bid price, bid amount, China's urea for number may not too big, bring to China's domestic urea should not, unless China's producers of urea is very bearish 5-7 months of domestic urea prices.
One, speculation about the bid price in India. China's urea in China Taiwan on April 8 standard purchase 5000-6000 tons in April arrived at the local small particles urea tender bidding, price of about $215 / ton (FOB China), also the Indian tender in Iran urea prices will be lower, prices may in $215-225 / ton (CIF, the seller handle cargo insurance), delivery on the west coast of India, Iran trader of mainstream quotation may higher than 220 U. s.dollars / ton (CIF, the seller freight insurance). In view of Iran, China and other sources usually in India urea procurement bidding dominant, so the Indian tender bid prices F.O.B. China urea compared to $215 / ton should be no more than too much, or even less than the. And China's urea FOB $215 / ton only China's urea hair Yantai port to the price of $1260-1270 / tons, the new port cargo prices only rose to 1310-1320 yuan / tons, in view of recent Northern urea 1320-1380 yuan / tons of ex factory price, the more Chinese producers of urea should be willing to sale in domestic market, and not willing to supply to India.
Second, speculation about the number of successful. The shipment deadline is May 23rd, shipment in less than a month, although the beginning of May to mid 5 domestic urea industry and agriculture of our country's support will gradually decrease, but for now, the Shandong River mainstream urea factory price has reached 1360-1400 yuan / ton, Linyi goods price 1400-1420 yuan / ton, the actual turnover of low-end factory in 1300-1320 yuan / ton, to May even when the price fell 50-100 yuan / ton, assumed that the ex factory price in 1200-1270 yuan / ton, then to India to supply is not cost-effective, not to mention in view of industrial and agricultural needs are intermittent support, then the price decline in China should not, urea producers more reluctant to supply in India shipment in less than a month under the condition. A data, Indian inventory is relatively sufficient, in February India urea surplus inventory for the highest record since 2014-2016, 154 million tons, compared with 2015 February 22.7 million tons, a substantial increase in inventory, and these goods does not include Hong Kong and is transported to a local the estimate another 70 million tons of urea. Whether high inventory is a smoke bomb or real data worth mentioning, I believe that in the first half of China's domestic demand better circumstances, India should be very difficult to take goods from China at low prices.
Ten thousand steps back, if India at a higher price bid, assuming that bid prices of China offshore 225-230 dollars / tons (China urea to the port of Yantai, the price is about 1325-1365 yuan / ton), then bring to China only positive. In short, the Indian urea procurement tender bid number should not be too large, combined with the international and domestic aspects of news rough, should not be more than 80 million tons, Iran can supply less than 35 million tons, China urea for number may only 30-50 million tons, at present China's urea Hong Kong kept slightly lower than 90 million tons, so the influence brought by the Indian urea bidding for China's domestic urea should not.