Demand forecast is not optimistic. Recently, the author and agricultural circle of friends, we agreed that the didn't expect in early June of urea prices will be so poor, and in previous years during the busy farming season purchase fertilizer heat is cautious replaced. The Dragon Boat Festival holiday just passed, many urea prices reproduction decline, and industry more and more voices of doubt also makes at first is optimistic about the market of the summer market always microscopic improvement. In the second quarter of this year the domestic urea market good to review, in India in two rounds of urea tender with obvious looting intentions and low price makes almost domestic urea manufacturers give up the export, and was to support strong enterprises offer the main reason is the summer season of fertilizer market near. And the domestic market is also taking into account the overall market inventory is low, coupled with urea enterprises take advantage of the off-season demand for maintenance, and effective control of production and marketing in the balance of the state, the situation is relatively optimistic. I believe that until mid May, although the summer fertilizer market to postpone the start, but the industry is still looking forward to the market. However, since the spread of China or India will be the second round of bidding to provide 500 thousand tons of low-cost supply, we began to some of the not calm. And with the summer fertilizer market from south to north gradually start, expectations seem just haven't started had ended around urea prices return to decline. Investigate its reason, can consider from three respects:

　　Market to see more of the substitution between urea and compound fertilizer, the second quarter agricultural demand off-season, compound fertilizer industry procurement of raw materials should be is one of the main reasons for the urea domestic prices can keep steady, only from the pre digested the amount of urea, more cost-effective high nitrogen mast have to seize the momentum of urea share in the current round of agricultural season. Summer crops including corn in northern and southern rice, considering acquisitions this year, grain prices low, frustration of the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, and flooding in the south of crops and other factors, the domestic summer fertilizer demand will subsequently reduction. Over the same period last year, urea in the right price directly export volume larger, which can effectively alleviate the first half of the domestic production capacity surplus; in addition, downstream industrial products exports over the same period also has a good performance, and this year plywood, compound fertilizer, such as urea downstream products exports a large quantity of amplitude atrophy. At this point, the reduction of the amount of urea and downstream industrial products to further reduce the amount of urea domestic demand.

　　Enterprise sales into a passive. Since late May, domestic urea market due to provide unnecessary topics become exceptionally sensitive and cautious, downstream distributors generally give up the stocking, and following with the operation in the primary market is not started only to wait-and-see. Urea enterprise inventory pressure directly reflected in the constant introduction of promotional policy, and has been in a passive situation. From the end of 5 individual manufacturers to push the Bulgarian policy to subsequently appeared in succession the Fed aggregators, early June fed aggregators generally adopted to advance payment form. Enterprises have repeatedly relaxed promotion policy caused the domestic urea prices all the way down. As of mid June, Hebei, Shandong, Henan and other major urea urea factory production price is also no lack of less than 1200 yuan / ton. Even a compromise of $208 / ton offshore port of the Fed's manufacturers have also gradually increased presumably at this time the domestic psychological defense of urea companies have been a price break at the end of the destroyed, the next only passive compromise.

　　Market or a new low price. Compared with urea enterprises auction sales, dealers also have to play "captive" brand. In the face of market of the domestic summer tepid, to avoid risks, and plant fed aggregators has been considered routine practice, but in terms of price still game to a lower than the ex factory price level. Not to mention the practice of pre payment, it is obvious that this is the dealer's ability to fulfill the orders of urea. Of course, this can not blame the dealer, after all, the current cost inversion of urea plant has not in a few, "peibenzhuanyaohe" only manufacturers in the survival line of last ditch. And dealers are not willing to be tied to such companies together. Anyway, out of the industry or in the year half concentrated outbreak, the next game manufacturers also will enable the urea market "celebrate" prices low.